European elections 2024: what do the final polls published 2 days before the vote say?

European elections 2024: what do the final polls published 2 days before the vote say?
European elections 2024: what do the final polls published 2 days before the vote say?

the essential
The European elections take place on Sunday June 9 to elect the European deputies who will represent France at European level. This Friday is the last day to publish polls. What do they predict as the result for Sunday evening?

To the polls, Sunday! The European elections take place on Sunday June 9. A unique round to choose the 81 of the 720 European deputies who will represent France for the next five years. The electoral campaign ends at midnight this Friday evening, when the media will no longer be authorized to discuss the candidates’ programs and the polls. So two days before the election, essential for the future of Europe, what results do the final polls published in recent hours predict?

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CASE. European elections 2024: ask for the programs!

RN Jordan Bardella well in the lead

Jordan Bardella’s National Rally list remains well ahead of voting intentions with 32% of the vote, according to an Ipsos, Radio France, Le Parisien (1) poll. It would collect 33%, according to the OpinionWay survey, CNews, JDD, Europe 1 (2).

The candidate of the presidential majority Valérie Hayer remains stable between 15% and 15.5% of voting intentions, or half as many votes as the president of the RN, if the results on Sunday confirm the polls.

3rd place for Raphaël Glucksmann, the Public Place-Socialist Party candidate. He would win 13% to 13.5% of the vote, according to opinion polls.

What score for LFI?

One of the scores that will be closely scrutinized on Sunday evening is the result of La France Insoumise, which focused its electoral campaign for the European elections on the situation in Gaza. LFI would obtain 7% of the votes according to OpinionWay while Ipsos announces an increase for Manon Aubry to 9% of voting intentions.

Objective: at least 5% to have elected officials

As for the other main lists, LR François-Xavier Bellamy is given 7% voting intentions, the Europe Écologie les Verts list of Marie Toussaint at 6%, between 5.5% and 6% for Marion Maréchal and its Reconquest list. The communist candidate Léon Deffontaines would be less than 5% of the votes which would not allow him to have European elected officials.

To find out the 38 lists running for the European elections, click here.

What will the participation be?

According to the Ifop Opinion LCI Le Figaro poll of Thursday June 6, 51% of voters plan to vote and 77% of voters say they are sure of their vote. In 2019, during the previous election, participation in France rose to 50.1% of the votes.

Results, analyses, comments: follow the election evening on ladepeche.fr Sunday June 9. Find the results for your municipality the same evening and in La Dépêche du Midi on Monday June 10.

(1) Ipsos survey conducted from June 5 to 6, 2024 via the internet, among a sample of 1,738 people aged over 18, representative of the French population and registered on the electoral lists. The margin of error is between 0.7 and 2.4 points.

(2) OpinionWay survey conducted on June 4 and 5, 2024, on a sample of 963 people registered on the electoral lists, from a representative sample of 1,027 people aged 18 and over using the quota method. The margin of error is between 1.4 to 3.1 points.

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