The decision by OPEC and its allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, comes against a backdrop of weak demand growth, high interest rates and increasing competing U.S. production. If for oil market specialists the decision provides a certain clarity for the coming months, many are nevertheless wondering how the 3.66 million barrels per day of collective voluntary reduction will be resolved after the end of 2025 .
The Congolese Minister of Hydrocarbons, Bruno Jean Richard Itoua, participated successively on June 2 (by videoconference) in the OPEC Conference and its ministerial meeting for allied producers to defend his country’s position. When Brent prices reached $90 per barrel at the start of the year, specialists projected the withdrawal of voluntary reductions in 2024, but the drop in prices observed contradicted this forecast. Despite the production reductions implemented by OPEC+, oil-producing countries have continued to benefit from market advantages since the start of 2023.
Overall, OPEC member countries and their allies committed in their declaration of cooperation to maintaining the stability of oil markets, ensuring transparency and guiding markets in the long term. They reaffirmed the framework of the Declaration of Cooperation signed on December 10, 2016, confirmed at subsequent meetings, and also reaffirming the Charter of Cooperation signed on July 2, 2019; the extension of the level of total crude oil production for OPEC member countries and non-OPEC countries, from 1er January until December 31, 2025.
The participants wanted the evaluation, carried out by the three independent sources, to be extended until the end of November 2025. This evaluation must serve as a reference in order to establish production levels for the year 2026. They also advocated for the extension of the powers granted to the Joint Ministerial Production Monitoring Committee to accurately assess global oil markets, production levels and the degree of compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, with the support of the Joint Technical Committee and the secretariat of OPEC. The participants decided that the meetings of the Joint Ministerial Production Monitoring Committee will be held every two months.
Furthermore, participating countries reaffirmed that adherence to the Declaration of Cooperation will be assessed based on the level of production, using the average of the seven additional approved sources; they supported the utmost importance of achieving full compliance and the clearing mechanism…
