The Taiwan Strait shaken again. This Thursday morning, the People’s Republic of China began new military operations in the area, with the aim of inflicting, in its words, “severe punishment” on the Taiwanese government. In response, Taiwan “strongly condemned these exercises” and the island’s presidency affirmed that it “will defend the values of freedom and democracy”.
After a few months of calm, it was the inauguration speech of the new president of Taiwan Lai Ching-te, this Monday, which reignited the fire in the region. The Beijing regime interpreted this speech as a declaration of independence.
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“A slight evolution” of the Taiwanese discourse
“There is a slight evolution in the official Taiwanese discourse,” admits Marc Julienne, director of the Asia Center of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “When speaking about Taiwan on one side and China on the other, Lai Ching-te had a more decided speech than her predecessor. Tsai Ing-wen (the former president) had a more subtle position which consisted of remaining vague on the status of the two political entities on either side of the strait,” explains the researcher.
“But this is in no way a provocation or a turn by the Taiwanese president towards a declaration of independence,” he warns.
“Large-scale” maneuvers
As part of these maneuvers, which began at 7:45 a.m. local time, military planes and ships were deployed “in the Taiwan Strait, to the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan as well as in areas located around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin,” said a statement from the Chinese army.
“Kinmen and Matsu, which are located on the coast of mainland China, had remained away from this type of military exercise by Beijing in recent years,” underlines the IFRI researcher.
According to Marc Julienne, this is an operation of a “large scale”, relatively “worrying”. “The last time there were such important exercises was in August 2022, after Nancy Pelosi’s visit,” he compares. Furious at the arrival of the Democratic President of the United States House of Representatives, the regime launched three days of military exercises.
Towards an armed conflict between China and Taiwan?
It remains to be seen whether these Chinese pressures should lead to fears of an invasion of Taiwan.
“The risk is low, but the consequences would be immeasurable,” summarizes Marc Julienne.
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The risk is also that of an international conflagration with “an intervention by the United States, a historic ally of Taiwan or even Korea, Japan or Australia” which have geostrategic interests in the region, worries Marc Julienne.
For now, the Chinese government announced the end of military operations this Friday.
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