Gas and oil: IEA forecasts for 2050
“Oil prices are expected to follow regular trajectories in all scenarios, despite the permanent risk of volatility,” notes the 2024 annual report of the International Energy Agency. The report predicts “short-term downward pressure on prices, which remain below 2023 levels until 2050”. The IEA also expects “a sharper decline in demand and the price of oil to fall to USD 58/barrel in 2050”. In the NZE scenario, “there is a sharp decline in the oil price until 2030, because the price of oil is higher than that of crude oil.”
For gas, in the NZE scenario, the IEA indicates that “producing economies could find it difficult to manage the pressures placed on their budgetary balance by the reduction in oil and gas revenues, which could lead to lower prices. higher and more volatile.
In 2030, LNG prices in Europe, Japan and China “fall to levels significantly lower than those seen in 2023, as rapid growth in renewable energy and electrification limits LNG production potential.”
Aris Mokdad
