Kamala Harris accepts a public meeting on CNN, Donald Trump definitively rejects any further debate

Thank you for these questions, which allow us to remember that the American presidential election is not just about politics, but also about arithmetic. It is therefore an indirect vote, where voters vote at the state level for electors, who then designate the winner.

To reach 270 electors, it is necessary, as the American “politicos” say, to define an electoral strategy and campaign accordingly, in the States which can switch to one camp or the other, these swing states which we will talk about a lot.

For Kamala Harris and the Democrats, victory goes through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, commonly called the Blue Wall: if the wall holds, the Democratic candidate (whose color is blue) can win the election, but not if he cracks.

Currently, Kamala Harris is very, very slightly ahead of Donald Trump, according to the aggregation of polls from the Cook Political Report and the New York Times which we keep up to date daily.

A very recent opinion study, carried out between October 3 and 7 and published Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, shows, however, that the dynamic seems very Republican in these three states. Here are their figures:

The authors note that during the previous poll, on September 18, “Harris was ahead in Pennsylvania, slightly ahead in Michigan and tied in Wisconsin”. It should also be remembered that these differences are within the margin of error.

As political journalist Chris Cillizza summarizes, “the numbers in the Blue Wall are going in the wrong direction for Kamala Harris”, while these states “are the whole election for her”. “She MUST win two of the three states. If she loses two, or all three, she doesn’t have many ways to reach 270 electors.”. He also cites data from Decision Desk HQ, another site specializing in survey monitoring and analysis, which confirms “a trend, albeit slight, of loss of momentum for Harris over the past month” which is true in these three States.