Will intensifying tensions in the Middle East drive up prices at the pump? Since Iran’s entry into the conflict between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah last week, crude oil prices have been rising.
Monday October 7, exactly one year after the attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement against the Jewish state, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in December, the benchmark for black gold in Europe, crossed the threshold symbolic of 80 dollars. A first in a month and a half. Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) maturing in November, reached $76.50. After a fall on Tuesday 8, prices rose again this Wednesday, October 9.
Fear of an Israeli attack in Iran drives up prices
At the origin of this rise in oil prices, the fear of an Israeli strike on Iranian oil infrastructure which would cut off supplies to one of the 10 largest oil producers in the world. Hurricane Milton, which could shut down American oil installations after passing Florida, could also influence prices upwards.
For now, however, “we cannot yet talk about a surge in oil pricesexplains Olivier Gantois, president of UFIP Énergies et mobilities (formerly the French Union of Petroleum Industries) in La Dépêche. Unlike, for example, when Russia invaded Ukraine, when the barrel of crude oil rose by $40. Today, the oil markets seem not to believe in a general conflagration in the Middle East”.
According to him, the price of a barrel could remain between 75 and 85 dollars. “It is a price zone which, in fact, satisfies all the players in the oil markets. (….) And it’s a price level that doesn’t cause a revolution among buyers at the pump.”explains the president of the UFIP to our colleagues. An opinion which is however not shared by all the experts. “ It would not be surprising to see prices quickly rise above $85 at the slightest escalation of the conflict. », Estimated for his part Monday to AFP, Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management, for whom the 100 dollar mark is “ far from being impassable ».
Prices at the pump are on the rise again
While waiting for a possible surge in oil prices, the rise in black gold prices is already being felt at the pump. According to the latest weekly report from the Ministry of Ecological Transition, as of Friday October 4, fuel prices are rising slightly at the start of the month. In one week, the average price of diesel increased by 0.5 cents to stand at €1.5905 including tax per liter and that of unleaded 95-E10 gasoline increased by 0.6 cents, rising to €1.6873 per liter. Same trend for SP95 and SP98 which increase by almost 0.9 cents to, respectively, 1.7295 €/L and 1.7932 €/L.
An increase in prices which should continue, according to Olivier Gantois. The repercussion of the evolution of the price of a barrel of oil, upwards or downwards, is “almost instantaneous”he tells our colleagues. So expect to pay more for your tank in the coming days.
