At the forefront of concerns, the speakers mentioned adverse global weather for crops – too dry in Russia and America, too much rain in France and Indonesia – and a renewed geopolitical tensions conducive to price volatility.
From the Chicago Stock Exchange to that of Paris, the rise in grain prices has run out of steam in recent days, while investment funds, which had supported prices by buying for weeks, have slowed down the movement.
« The market is taking a breather after rising over the past six weeks,” notes Jason Britt, of Central State Commodities, while waiting for the monthly report of the United States Department of Agriculture, says « Wasde”, on global stocks, production and exports on Friday.
Weight of Black Sea wheat
However, « wheat is not going to weaken much,” predicts Dewey Strickler, analyst at Ag Watch Market Advisors, due in particular to bombings in the Black Seawhere two bulk carriers were hit by missiles on Monday and Tuesday.
On the European market, the price of a tonne of soft wheat rose slightly on Wednesday, trading at 231.5 euros around 2 p.m. GMT on the earliest deadline, with corn following a slight increase, around 214 euros per tonne.
The main cause of this firmness of wheat is that Russian prices « continue to rise, which limits the potential for decline” in European and primarily French wheat, underlines Arthur Portier, analyst at Argus Media France.
These prices rise first due to the return to the market of large buyers like Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The latter would have purchased, without going through a call for tenders, 3.12 million tonnes of wheat, according to several brokers.
« It is estimated that out of all these purchases, there will only be wheat of Black Sea origin, mainly Russian,” indicates Damien Vercambre, of Inter-Courtage.
The price of the cereal is also sustained due to difficult climatic conditions in the world’s leading exporter, with a drought persistent in the cereal plains of the Volga and the Center.
« At present, Russia is behind in sowing by around a million hectares compared to last year: we are at 11.3 million hectares of wheat sown compared to more than 12 million usually. explains Arthur Portier.
Conversely, in France, it isarrival of new rains which despairs farmers. There, winter wheat and barley can still be sown for a month, but the delay in the corn harvest is worrying.
The longer the rain lasts, the more it delays the time when combine harvesters will be able to access the fields, risking a drop in the very promising yields of yellow grain this year, after a disastrous wheat harvest.
Firm palm oil
In the United States, the leading corn exporter, analysts expect a slight adjustment in the Wasde report due to a somewhat dry end to the season, suggesting yields « not as good” than initially announced by the USDA, according to Jason Britt.
« We are approaching the threshold of 50% of corn and soybean harvests completed, which traditionally corresponds to a low point for prices, linked to the arrival of additional volumes on the market, he says.
In addition, notes Arlan Sudermann, of the Stone X brokerage platform, « (American) farmers know that South America (especially Brazil) wants to increase its production (of corn) and they do not have sufficient capacity to store everything. So you have to make choices and they prefer to store corn rather than soybeans. This means that there is lots of soy that arrives on the market, which lowers prices.”
The oilseed market (rapeseed, sunflower, soya, etc.) is essentially supported by « firmness” of palm oil prices on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, for three reasons, notes Arthur Portier: « low stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia”, « very heavy rainfall forecast for Indonesia” and « the postponement to 2026 of the anti-deforestation law » of the European Union by 2026, which will allow imports to continue.
