COTidienne | Oilseeds – Fall in soybean prices and increase in rapeseed prices on world markets

THE prix of the main soybean futures contracts fell quite significantly this Thursday, October 3, 2024 (-10 cents/bushel for the most traded expiry of November) compared to the very small decline the day before on the CBOT. The drop applies to all maturities (between 5.75 and 9.75 cents/bushel). Reverse movement in Europe where rapeseed listed on Euronext has progressed well, the February deadline, the most worked, even reaching €490/t while that of November, the closest, crossed €480/t to close at €481/t. The dynamic applies to all maturities with increases of between 3.5 and 6.5 €/t. On the markets physical hexagonal, the prices of rapeseed have also crossed the threshold of 480 €/t (481 for delivery Rouen and 484 for FOB Moselle).

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Regarding the militaryfears have eased a little regarding the rains in Brazil. The latter have finally appeared in certain regions and should intensify in mid-October, which should ease some tension among observers of these markets. Same in Argentina. At the same time, the announcement in Europe of a one-year delay in the entry into force of regulations on imported deforestation continued to relieve operators. In the United States, the weather seems favorable for the harvests in this first part of October. Weekly export sales, to China and Bangladesh in pole position, are down compared to the previous week but “remain solid” according to analysts. However, some wonder about the continuation of the Chinese dynamic in terms of purchases, once the Golden Week is over. Soybean meal prices were down on Thursday while oil was up.

In rapeseedthe significant increase in prices occurs in the wake of that of canola in Canada and vegetable oils driven by palm oil in the world. Market participants are keeping an eye on the European Commission’s decision to postpone its regulation on the import of raw materials linked to imported deforestation (EUDR) by one year.

The canola Canadian listed in Winnipeg further progressed, closing at its highest levels for a month on the current contract for November 2024. Some fears are emerging about national production in Australia. In the south of this country, winter crops for animal feed seem to lack water for the end of the development cycle. However, canola, like chickpeas, remains in high demand among buyers, according to some traders operating in southern hemisphere markets.

Side palm oilin Asia, palm oil producers in Malaysia welcomed Thursday the decision of the European Union to postpone by one year, to the end of 2025, the entry into force of its anti-deforestation law according to the AFP, just like the Brazilian government. Palm oil prices listed in Malaysia have returned above 4,300 ringgit per tonne and are trading at levels equivalent to those of last April. An Indian strategist-trader believes that the “upside potential for edible oils is still significant in the long term”, even if the high price levels reached recently are the highest in two to three years.

The seeds of sunflower remain unchanged on the French market even if sunflower oil has progressed in recent days on international markets. In certain places and certain origins (Black Sea in particular), the ton trades close to or slightly above $1,000/t according to UkrAgroConsult ($1,010/t CPT for crude oil in Odessa according to a trader based in Ukraine, for example). Declining global production is expected for the 2024-2025 campaign.

” THE dockers “American workers will return to work after three days of strike, the union and employers announced Thursday in a joint statement,” AFP said Thursday evening. Oil prices soared on Thursday as Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure were considered. The euro-dollar parity stood at $1.103 against $1.105 the day before, forcing some grain importers to raise the prices of imported goods.

The FAO today publishes its basic food price index. A vote is planned by EU member states to confirm customs duties on Chinese electric cars and therefore it will be necessary to monitor the Chinese reaction to this vote.

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Commerce international :

• United States, soybeans, export sales : for the week ending September 26, 2024, 1,444,500 t, within analyst expectations (source: USDA).

French physical markets from October 3, 2024 (July base for cereals)

Commercial quotes for dairy products from October 3, 2024

Dollar/euro evolution of October 3, 2024

Chicago Futures Market Close October 3, 2024

Closing of the Euronext futures market on October 3, 2024

International market quotes from October 3, 2024