Former President of the United States and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign event in Waukesha, Wisconsin, United States, May 1, 2024 (AFP / Alex Wroblewski)
As the presidential election approaches in the United States, one of the false reports particularly relayed by the Republicans, starting with their candidate Donald Trump, targets migrants: the Democrats are trying to get them to vote…while they do not have the right to do so.
With the prospect of a close vote, social networks are flooded with rumors targeting people illegally crossing the border with the United States, a central theme of the Republican campaign against Democrat Joe Biden.
People who do not have American citizenship do not have the right to vote in federal elections, such as the presidential election in November. But former President Donald Trump continues to claim without evidence on his Truth Social network that the Democratic Party is encouraging migrants to enter illegally in order to get them to vote for Joe Biden.
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“This explains the large number of registrations by social security number in certain key states, migrants can obtain it without having citizenship,” she said on X. “This is why Biden wants to open the border”.
A study by the independent political analysis institute Brennan Center estimates that votes suspected, without proof, of coming from non-citizens represented 0.0001% of the votes counted during the 2016 presidential election.
The United States has some 161 million voters out of a population of approximately 336 million. Authorities estimate that there are 11.4 million illegal immigrants and 12.9 million legal permanent foreign residents in the country.
– “Capitalize on fear” –
A Texas National Guard soldier patrols near the Rio Grande River in Eagle Pass, Texas, United States, March 20, 2024 (GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Brandon Bell)
Donald Trump and the Republican Party insist: they want an additional law aimed at making it even more impossible for non-citizens to cast a ballot in the ballot box.
“We can’t just wait for massive fraud to happen,” said Mike Johnson, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives.
The surge in false information regarding voting rights in the United States coincides with record illegal border crossings with Mexico in recent years.
“The most notable change is the intensity of the crisis at the border and the way it is being exploited to fuel these rumors,” says Mert Bayar, a conspiracy theory specialist at the University of Washington.
And many politicians are “capitalizing on the anxiety and fear” of part of the electorate, says Ethan Porter, professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University.
“Mobilizing voters is not easy. These fears make it easier for them,” he points out.
These same unfounded theories already existed during the 2016 presidential election, won narrowly by Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. The ex-president had however accused his then rival of having benefited from the votes of illegal migrants.
But today, the disinformation system is even more “sophisticated” than before, according to Emerson Brooking, an expert on disinformation at the Atlantic Council think tank.
– “Just the beginning” –
Supporters of Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, in Waukesha, Wisconsin, United States, May 1, 2024 (GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / SCOTT OLSON)
According to several analysts, these rumors around illegal immigration serve as a primer for future accusations of fraud which are sure to resurface during the election, Donald Trump having never acknowledged his 2020 defeat against Joe Biden.
According to Professor Ethan Porter, this strategy responds to an equation that is always intended to be a winning one for the Republicans: “either ‘my side wins the election despite the illegal votes’ or ‘my side loses because of these same illegal votes’ “.
A risky bet, believes Mert Bayar. “These conspiracy theories and rumors of fraud could well have the effect of demobilizing people who believe in them because they might not want to participate in a system in which they no longer have confidence,” explains the specialist to AFP .
For Emerson Brooking, these theories are purely “opportunistic” and those who want to believe them will forget them “overnight” if Donald Trump wins against Joe Biden.
Six months before the presidential election, “we are only at the very beginning of the wave of political disinformation,” warns the expert, who expects “a tidal wave” of false information by November.
