the essential
A liter of diesel continues to be sold less expensively than unleaded gasoline. The gap even tends to widen. How to explain this difference? Can we expect a decline in fuel prices? Philippe Charlez, expert in energy issues at the Sapiens Institute, responds to La Dépêche du Midi.
Three months ago, the prices of unleaded 95 and diesel were practically identical. The gap has continued to widen since. Average fuel prices in France this Friday, May 3, were €1.897/liter for SP98-E10; €1.931/liter for SP95-E10 and €1.781/liter for diesel, according to carbu.com statements. This difference between unleaded and diesel varies from 10 to 20 cents depending on the service station.
However, in Rotterdam in the Netherlands – the oil hub in Europe – a liter of gasoline was sold that same Friday 3 but in the morning at €0.692 and diesel at €0.655, a difference of 4 cents on the price of crude oil.
So how can we explain the difference we see at the pump? “We must add the distribution margins of €0.22/0.23 and the TICPE”, another tax collected by the regions and which differ depending on where you live in France.
“Between gasoline and diesel, there is a difference of 9 cents. The TICPE is €0.61 for diesel on average in France and €0.70 for gasoline,” notes Philippe Charlez, expert in energy issues at the Sapiens Institute. When we apply VAT of 20.6% to the whole, we automatically arrive at the prices at the pump. On departure in Rotterdam there is a 5% difference between diesel and 9% on arrival at a service station.
Seasonal phenomena also explain the gap we see today. As diesel is used for oil heating, demand is higher in winter – so prices rise – and then fall.
For gasoline, it is also the law of supply and demand that sets prices in a globalized oil market. Spring is the “driving season” in the United States, a time when Americans more easily go on weekends. This peak in consumption in a country where the majority of vehicles run on unleaded gasoline is weighing on demand. Consequence: prices are increasing even for us, French motorists.
Another factor to take into account: less crude oil is available globally. Oil production in OPEC + countries fell in April 2024, indicates Reuters. 26.49 million barrels per day were pumped, all countries combined, or 100,000 fewer per day compared to March. The price of a barrel remains around $90. A new meeting on the 1ster June in Vienna, Austria, will set the next steps in production policy.
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For drivers, it is impossible today to fill up with gasoline for less than €80, including for a city car. An expense that weighs heavily on household budgets, when the car is essential for getting around.
For the coming months, we should not expect a decline. “We will stay between €1.90 and €2 per liter this year, and 10 cents cheaper for diesel,” predicts Philippe Charlez. TotalEnergies maintains a ceiling of €1.99 per liter for unleaded and diesel. And as the oil company has more than 50% of the market in France, competitors will continue to align with its prices.
