As a result of the bluetongue which is plaguing the herds, butter production in France risks running out of steam and prices are already rising.
The prices of the raw material are experiencing a historic surge, increasing by 92%. A tonne of butter currently sells for 8,180 euros compared to 4,260 euros at the start of the 2023 school year. This surge in prices is reminiscent of the 2017 crisis and then the inflationary peak of 2022 when the price of butter was close to the 8,000 euro mark.
This time, prices have already exceeded 8,000 euros, expressing fear over the epidemic of bluetongue (BFT), or blue tongue disease, which is spreading in herds. As of September 26, 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture recorded 3,743 households spread across 25 departments, mainly in the north, east and center of France.
This health risk therefore leads to fears of a sudden drop in milk collection and, thereby, butter production.
At the same time, the dairy production giant Lactalis has decided to reduce its milk collections in France, by “around 450 million” out of the 5.2 billion liters collected each year. This reduction should concern 510 breeders on French territory, who are losing a main buyer.
Added to this are global exports, with demand for French butter to Asia and the United States remaining high.
Imports to be expected
Faced with this situation, the French supply risks falling sharply and certain manufacturers and distributors are already turning towards possible international imports. “At 8,000 euros per tonne, European butter is no longer competitive for export compared to New Zealand butter whose prices have been relatively stable for two months,” explains Nicolas Pinchon, founder of the consultancy firm Veille au Grain sur RFI.
With European prices 19% higher than in the United States and even 25% higher than in New Zealand, butter imports are expected to accelerate soon.
In France, the herd vaccination campaign against the disease is being organized, the State having provided more than 6 million free doses of vaccine to breeders. The latter are also awaiting the return of cold and winter which should stop the spread of the virus responsible for bluetongue. In fact, the midge that spreads the disease no longer flies when temperatures drop below 15°C.
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