Published on 27.9.2024 at 8:45, modified on 27.9.2024 at 12:18
Inflation should slow to +1.2% year-on-year in September 2024, its lowest level in three years. Over one month, prices would fall by 1.2%, the first time since 1990.
>> According to provisional data published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) at 8:45 a.m., the consumer price index (CPI) in France would stand at 119.64 points in September 2024 ( base 100 in 2015). Thus, inflation should fall to +1.2% over one year, after +1.8% last August. We have to go back to July 2021 to find this level of inflation.
>> In its latest economic update, INSEE expected a much less marked decline, at +1.6% in September. This slowdown in inflation could be mainly explained by a sharp decline in energy prices (-3.3% over one year).
>> Over one month, all consumer prices would decline sharply, as shown in the graph. They would fall by 1.2%, after an increase of 0.5% in August. INSEE indicates that such a drop has never been observed since the creation of the indicator in 1990.
>> In September, prices are traditionally falling in monthly data, including during periods of high inflation. A combination of factors would be much more marked this year. “To the seasonal effect of the drop in the price of transport (notably air) and accommodation services, there is in particular the marked drop in energy prices, the return to normal of certain prices after the Games Olympics and Paralympics and the fall in the price of health services”, explains the Institute of Statistics. On the other hand, the prices of manufactured products would be “driven by the increase in the prices of clothing and shoes”.
What you need to know about this indicator: The consumer price index makes it possible to measure inflation, that is to say the average variation between 2 dates in the prices of products consumed by households. Like gross domestic product (GDP) or the unemployment rate, it is a major economic indicator. It is used in particular to index the minimum wage, certain contracts, alimony and even life annuities. The CPI is the subject of 2 monthly publications from INSEE, one provisional (at the end of the month) and one definitive (around the 13th of the following month). The final version is published in the official journal every month. The Statistical Institute also publishes the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), used for international comparisons.
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