Which ministers for Michel Barnier? Five questions to ask before the appointment of the government

POLITICS – The clocks have a new master. Appointed to Matignon on September 5, Michel Barnier promised to form his government this week. To do this, the Prime Minister is continuing his consultations. He received this Monday, September 16, the leaders of the right Gérard Larcher, Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau for a new interview.

He must then hold consultations, on rue de Varenne (the communists are expected on Tuesday) or on the telephone, to convince profiles ” solid ” to join him and find the best possible balance to strengthen his position in Parliament. A task that is already complex in general. But even more difficult for a head of government without a majority.

In this context, Republican spokesman Vincent Jeanbrun finds it hard to imagine a decision “before Sunday.” While waiting for this white smoke, several questions arise, both on the room for maneuver left to Michel Barnier, and on the red lines imposed by his allies.

1- Will Macron really give ground?

Don't talk about ” cohabitation. » Since they agreed on Matignon, Emmanuel Macron and Michel Barnier have been talking about a new era of coexistence. But the two men are trying to stage a real break in this double five-year term.

On the one hand, the Élysée Palace is making it known in the press that ties with Matignon are being severed. Meaning: no more shared advisors, no more emissaries sent by the president's entourage to interministerial meetings, no ministers imposed on certain positions. On the other hand, Michel Barnier is promising a certain independence, with this formula: “The president will preside and the government will govern.”

What will happen? The fate reserved for the Ministers of the Armed Forces and Foreign Affairs, who are often considered to be the “domain” of the President, will be one indicator. The contingent of Macronists will be another.

2- Which survivors among the graduates?

In this sense, the question of the renewal of the outgoing ministers arises. Several of them would like to stay, even if it means changing portfolios. But the results of the European and then the legislative elections, like the red lines drawn by certain parties, rather encourage a real upheaval.

MoDem president François Bayrou is thus calling for the “complete or almost complete” renewal of the government, while the National Rally is already raising the spectre of a motion of censure if certain profiles that irritate them, such as Gérald Darmanin or Éric Dupond-Moretti, are reappointed.

Despite everything, several potential survivors are often cited: Rachida Dati, Catherine Vautrin or… Gérald Darmanin. The departure of Stéphane Séjourné (candidate for the European Commission) seems to open the door of the Quai d'Orsay to the current Minister of the Interior, who is said to be eyeing the post. It would have the advantage of pleasing the President and his Prime Minister… But would give the National Rally arguments to play the party pooper.

3- On the right, grand slam on the regalian?

In this context, the appetite of the right is growing. Just to spice things up. While Laurent Wauquiez had initially ruled out participating in a government with the president's troops, his party is now eager to reclaim the most powerful positions. According to several media outlets, the president of the LR group would like to see himself at the Ministry of the Interior.

A hypothetical raid that puts the presidential camp under tension. The MoDem clearly calls on Michel Barnier not to give too much weight to his political family, and will support him ” if and only if all the sovereign positions are not taken by the Republicans”.

In short, the Prime Minister must serve his party, but also give assurances to the Macronist camp, his main support force in the Assembly with some 150 deputies. This, while several Renaissance elected officials are already warning of a line that is undoubtedly too far to the right.

4- Who will be convinced on the left?

This is, among his first commitments, the one he will have the most difficulty in keeping. Barely appointed, Michel Barnier explained his wish to have, among his team, personalities ” left. » Problem: the list of refusals is growing longer by the day.

Among the socialists, the president of the Occitanie region Carole Delga, the mayor of Saint-Ouen Karim Bouamrane, the former minister Stéphane Le Foll, all said no. In reality, it seems difficult for anyone on the left to enter a government without a program, but under the threat of the National Rally, and in the company of personalities embodying the hard right.

In this context, attention would rather turn towards the wing ” social ” from the presidential camp. But here again, it is difficult to imagine the cohabitation of these profiles, like Roland Lescure or Sacha Houlié, with Laurent Wauquiez or Bruno Retailleau. Another possibility: personalities from civil society, or far removed from partisan politics but labeled on the left like the former socialist deputy Didier Migaud, whose name circulated for a while.

5- Thierry Breton, from Brussels to the government?

As with every government, the balance of this new team will be scrutinized. And the political moves noted. Especially since the Matignon tenant wants to count on experienced personalities, capable, in particular, of fighting for the examination of the Budget.

Thierry Breton could then tick some boxes. Minister of Jacques Chirac between 2005 and 2007, the former boss of 69 years has just left his post, with a bang, as European Commissioner for the internal market. From there to imagine him recovering a ministry, in France? A close friend of the head of government affirms to The Tribune Sunday that the option is not on the table, for the moment.

In the meantime, some crucial deadlines are approaching, and the political calendar could be disrupted. Michel Barnier is considering not presenting the 2025 budget until after he has delivered his general policy statement. “early October” before the National Assembly, Matignon announced on Monday. The deadline of October 1 would therefore not be met and the draft finance law would not be submitted to Parliament until October 9.

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