The withdrawal of candidates, with a view to blocking the National Rally in the second round of the legislative elections, continued throughout the day of July 2. Of the 306 three-way races that emerged after the first round, more than 200 turned into duels, according to still provisional counts. This “republican front” gives room for maneuver to the candidates of the New Popular Front or to the candidates of the presidential camp to hope to win against the National Rally, which most often came out on top on June 30. But this strategy of the two rounds must not mask a reality: it is the voters who hold the key to the election on Sunday.
There is no guarantee that the voters of a candidate who has withdrawn will switch to the RN candidate’s opponent in one go. Opinion polls conducted on the day of the second round of the June 2022 legislative elections documented very variable behavior. According to a Harris Interactive poll of June 19, 2022, among NUPES (New Popular Ecological and Social Union) voters in the first round, 45% abstained in the event of a duel between the RN and the presidential majority, compared to 31% choosing Emmanuel Macron’s candidate and 24% the RN candidate. A Cluster 17 poll also anticipates a similar abstention rate this year, in this type of configuration, but the survey was conducted before the first round.
In 2022, one in two voters in the presidential majority abstained in the event of a duel between the left and the RN
For the voters of the first round of Ensemble (the presidential majority), in the event of a NUPES-RN duel, 48% decided to abstain in the second round in 2022, 34% chose NUPES and 18% chose RN. LR voters were also very divided in the duels between NUPES and RN: 37% said they abstained, 36% chose the left-wing candidate, and 27% chose RN. These figures show that the notion of a republican front is not absolute.
The sharp increase in blank or invalid ballots from one round to the next (7.64% in the second round, more than three times as in the firstis tour) also demonstrate the desire of many voters not to refuse to decide between two finalists in whom they do not recognize themselves.
Another important piece of data drawn from the 2022 experience, an election marked by a much lower turnout than in 2024: the gaps between the two candidates in a legislative election were only marginally reduced in the second round, according to an article co-signed by Bernard Dolez, professor of political science at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and Annie Laurent, emeritus research director at the CNRS. “The two candidates remaining in the running progressed roughly equally in percentage of registered voters or, to put it another way, gained a similar number of votes from one round to the next,” write the two political scientists. According to their data, in the Ensemble-RN duels, an Ensemble candidate gained an average of 7,900 votes from one round to the next, compared to 6,900 votes for his RN opponent. In the NUPES-RN duels, a NUPES candidate gained an average of 6,100 votes, and the RN candidate gained 6,800 votes. “The second round attests to a low electoral fluidity between three electoral blocs which are now equidistant,” summarize the two authors of the study.
“Victory goes in 80% of cases to the candidate who comes out on top in the first round,” noted two political scientists in 2022.
The study of the results also led them to another observation: “victory is offered in 80% of cases to the candidate who comes out on top in the first round. The second only manages to make up the deficit once in five.” As a reminder, on June 30, the RN came out on top in 297 of the 577 constituencies (110 in 2022).
However, precautions should be taken before transposing examples from the past to the current situation. “We are in a fundamentally different situation. In 2022, the question was not whether the RN would come to power, but who could obtain a majority between Ensemble and NUPES, that did not really encourage postponements,” recalls Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos France.
The level of participation could be a first indicator on Sunday morning and afternoon to know if the reduction of the political offer in the second round has led some orphaned voters to boycott the ballot boxes. “First there are the people who abstained on Sunday, who can get back into the game. And conversely, people who voted in the 1is tour, who may consider that the offer proposed between two extremes does not suit them, and who will abstain,” warns Pierre Bréchon, emeritus professor of political science at Sciences Po Grenoble. The political scientist also adds another nuance: “When there is no withdrawal, and there is a three-way race, we are not obliged to repeat exactly the first week. The voter is increasingly mobile.”
Ensemble voters less likely to vote for LFI than for the PS or the ecologists
Pierre Bréchon also notes that the sensitivity of the New Popular Front candidate in the running will be an important factor for the Macronist voter. “He will more easily turn to a moderate left candidate, an environmentalist, or even a communist, than to an LFI candidate.”
This was highlighted by an Ipsos Talan survey conducted for France Télévisions, Radio France and Public Sénat, on the eve of the first round of the legislative elections. In the event of a second round pitting the New Popular Front against the RN, voters close to Ensemble would be 40% likely to vote for a PS candidate, 38% for an environmentalist candidate, but only 32% for a candidate from La France Insoumise.
So many losses that could cost dearly the supporters of the “republican front”, in the constituencies where the RN exceeded 40% of the votes in the first round.
