EChoosing to dissolve the National Assembly on the evening of the European elections, Emmanuel Macron hoped for “a democratic start”, “an awakening” of voters to the dangers of “extremes”. In light of the results of the first round of these legislative elections which he himself provoked, only one observation stands out: the head of state lost his bet. Mechanical consequence of the arrival in third position of its candidates with almost 22%, behind the NFP and the RN, the tenant of the Élysée has already lost, even before the verdict of the second round, its relative majority .
While this dissolution was to respond both to the breakthrough of the RN in the European elections and to the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron is therefore heading straight towards cohabitation. Without us yet knowing the form it will take. But one thing seems certain, at Matignon, the rest will be written without Gabriel Attal. Its lease should end after only six months of operation. One of the lessons of the evening is here: appointed in January, the youngest Prime Minister of the Ve Republic will remain as one of the most ephemeral.
Shock
For Emmanuel Macron, who has led France for seven years, this first round is therefore a major setback. However, in the scenario concocted within the walls of the Élysée Palace, the head of state intended to bank on the shock that accompanied this surprise dissolution. It was this wind effect that was supposed to help curb, through vertigo, the anger expressed in the European elections. However, this anger was in no way curbed. On the contrary, it was amplified and transferred, once again, against the presidential majority. And even more so against the head of state. Convinced that he was offering the French a “Gaullist” interlude, Emmanuel Macron only succeeded in sacrificing his troops.
Sunday evening, faced with the scale of the disaster, he contented himself with a brief written declaration: “Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a large, clearly Democratic and Republican gathering for the second round. » But we had to listen to the tenors of the majority to clearly understand this instruction. “We will see on a case-by-case basis,” said François Bayrou, on the set of TF1. From Le Havre, Édouard Philippe, the boss of Horizons, will be even more explicit: “No vote for the RN and LFI. »
“Everything has to be rebuilt”
It was this blast effect that was supposed to help control, through vertigo, the anger expressed in the European elections.
From now on, for the former majority, it will be a matter of saving what can be saved to try to reach 90 to 100 seats. But beyond that, it is above all the post-Macron period which began this Sunday evening. In recent days, several heavyweights from the presidential camp have cut ties with the tenant of the Élysée. Starting with Édouard Philippe, who clearly assumed he wanted to build a “new majority”. He said it this Sunday evening: “Everything needs to be rebuilt on the right and center right. » While Gérald Darmanin came first in his northern constituency, we will also have to count on him to shape the future. Élisabeth Borne, the former Prime Minister, could also be part of this after, she who qualified for the second round in Calvados. This Sunday evening, the situation of several minister-candidates was not yet completely resolved.
One thing is certain: this dissolution will leave its mark, as this campaign revealed the tensions between Emmanuel Macron and his troops. In this regard, the case of Gilles Le Gendre is a model of its kind. While the former president of the LREM group in the National Assembly was not reinvested in Paris – by decision of Emmanuel Macron – he received the official support of several figures from Macronie. Thus, Agnès Buzyn, the former Minister of Health, Florence Parly, the former Minister of the Armed Forces, Richard Ferrand, the former President of the National Assembly and member of Emmanuel Macron’s inner circle, and even Yaël Braun -Pivet, the last president of the National Assembly to date, called to vote for him. Proof of the weakening of Emmanuel Macron’s authority, proof that a page has been turned. Beyond that, all eyes will also be on Renaissance, the presidential party which could arouse desire among the “survivors” of this dissolution.
By choosing to dissolve the National Assembly, against the advice of the main tenors of his majority, Emmanuel Macron wanted to replay the 2022 presidential election by reestablishing his match with the “extremes”. With the RN on one side and La France insoumise on the other. However, if he did not fully appreciate the rejection he aroused in public opinion, he also did not see the alliance of left-wing parties coming. The act of “trust” he hoped for turned into defiance.
