The bad calculations of Maretraitenupes.fr, the simulator used by Gabriel Attal to criticize the left

The sequence was carefully prepared by Gabriel Attal. During the political debate broadcast on Thursday, June 27, on France 2, the Prime Minister attacked the New Popular Front (NFP) on the tax increases that it is considering to finance the social spending of its program. “You propose to increase the CSG [cotisation sociale généralisée] on pensions of 1,200 euros »he criticized, calling on viewers to consult the site Maretraitenupes.fr, created by Ensemble, the presidential coalition, to assess the consequences of such a measure. “All French people who watch us, whether they are retirees, children, grandchildren of retirees, can connect to the siteMr. Attal said. You enter your retirement amount and you see how much your CSG will increase and how much less retirement that will mean for you.”

“I am for the progressive CSG, replied Olivier Faure, who represented the NFP. It’s normal that people who have less pay less and people who have more pay more. » The first secretary of the Socialist Party denounced the “Mr. Attal’s rigged simulator” and assured that “for a small retiree, it won’t cost anything at all”. Friday June 28, La France insoumise, another component of the NFP, denounced, in a press release, a simulator “lying” and initiated proceedings against Renaissance for “false and misleading allegations likely to alter the vote”.

Misleading, the domain name Maretraitenupes.fr may suggest that it is a campaign site run by the New Ecological and Social Popular Union, or Nupes, name of the left-wing alliance for the 2022 legislative elections, which brings together most of the parties currently within the NFP.

A site created by Renaissance on the day of the debate

According to information available online, the site was created on Thursday, June 27, the same day as the debate between Gabriel Attal, Jordan Bardella and Olivier Faure. When it appeared, it did not contain any legal notices clearly indicating who was the author. It was only on Friday morning, after much online criticism, that a new link appeared to redirect to the Renaissance site. Party officials confirmed to the Monde having created this site on the day of the debate, but deny any intention of sowing confusion.

When Gabriel Attal mentioned this site, Thursday at 9:03 p.m., no public mention had been made of it. Immediately, several activist accounts on X, including “MacronardsFM” and “La France!”, relayed it. With the objective, presumably, of making the subject rise in the trends of the platform. In the minutes that followed, the site was shared by many Renaissance figures, such as the deputy of Val-de-Marne Mathieu Lefèvre or the X account of Gabriel Attal during the debate on France 2. None specified that the site had been created by Renaissance.

According to this simulator, the NFP project induces significant losses in retirement pensions, in particular for modest pensions. According to the example shared by Gabriel Attal’s account on X during the debate, for a monthly net pension of 1,300 euros, the loss is estimated at 858 euros per year.

Misleading calculations

However, these calculations pose several problems. Examination of the calculator highlights two major biases in its design. First of all, it only asks retirees for the amount of their retirement pension. However, the calculation of the CSG on the retirement pension, in the current system as in that envisaged by the left, also depends on the tax income of the entire household, and the number of tax shares of the latter.

A retiree receiving a pension of 1,200 euros does not pay the same amount of CSG depending on whether he lives alone or with a spouse who receives a high pension. But the Maretraitenupes.fr site only takes into account the situation of a single person.

Questioned on this subject, an executive from the Ensemble campaign team recognizes the approximation: “This does not claim to be a simulator of the Ministry of the Economy. » He assumes a simulator “simplistic”to alert on the program “not clear at all” of the NFP, which has not published a scale detailing its proposal. “As Nupes deputies have tabled amendments of this type in the past, we wish to alert retired French people to the consequences of such a measure on their pensions,” justifies this member of Renaissance.

By seeking to reproduce the calculations as Ensemble detailed them, The world did not arrive at the same figures, the simulator tending to overestimate losses and ignore situations where the reform would on the contrary be favorable to retirees.

Then, this approach is based on a 2023 proposal, which is not directly included in the NFP program. The amendment used was, of course, tabled by Nupes and defended by the socialist Jérôme Guedj, before being rejected at the beginning of 2023. Ensemble considered that it foreshadows what the measure carried today by the left could give. of a more “progressive” CSG.

In any case, several members of the NFP assured on Friday that their reform would not be exactly that proposed by the socialists in 2023. “Our common program sets the principle of a progressive CSG, for greater tax justice, but we have not yet arbitrated the question of the scale”explains Arthur Delaporte, outgoing socialist deputy and NFP candidate in 2^e constituency of Calvados. If it obtains a majority at the end of the legislative elections, the left intends to arbitrate the debate on the scale in the Hemicycle, confirms Hadrien Clouet, outgoing deputy for La France insoumise and NFP candidate in Haute-Garonne: “Tax is a serious thing that is discussed in the National Assembly, no offense to Mr. Attal. »