NBA Player Props Today: January 17, 2025

A 3-1 finish for Thursday’s slate of games creates some momentum heading into Friday’s NBA schedule in the player props market, and I’ve isolated three props all involving scoring to end this week off on a high note.

Here’s an in-depth look at the player props in question, including an OVER for Most Valuable Player favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the road against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center on January 17, 2025.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points vs. Mavericks (-104)

Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET

A 40-point performance in a shocking blowout of the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday didn’t require Gilgeous-Alexander to exert himself with a ton of minutes, as he totalled fewer than 30 and should be relatively rested all things considered on the second night of a back-to-back slate versus Dallas.

A points prop of 32.5 is incredibly high, but as we’ve seen from Gilgeous-Alexander time and time again, he can make those types of numbers feel low. He remains the league leader in scoring at 31.6 points per game, and has toppled this prop in nine of his last 15 appearances. SGA has also gone OVER twice already this season against the Mavericks, having dropped 36 and 39 points in those outings, respectively, while converting at least 65 percent of his shot attempts each time.

There has been seven instances in which the 26-year-old guard has competed on no rest this season, and he’s scored more than 32.5 points four times and in the two most recent games. Dallas’ defense also ranks 20th overall in its last 10 games as the team has gone 2-8 during that span, and center Derek Lively II won’t be protecting the paint area Friday as he sits with an ankle injury.

Trey Murphy III OVER 21.5 Points vs. Jazz (+100)

Preview: Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET

Getting this prop at plus money is the definition of value, as Murphy III has gone scorched earth in three games since returning from a three-game absence due to an injured ankle. He’s averaging 28.7 points during this stretch and leading the New Orleans Pelicans in scoring, shot attempts (18.3), and free-throw attempts (8.3), and his usage year over year has jumped from 18.6 to 23.9.

Only the Washington Wizards allow more points per 100 possessions this season than the Utah Jazz, who rank 29th across the Association (117.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) and have dropped four of their last five games.

Murphy III’s numbers have remained consistent despite returning faces like Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans’ lineup, and against a team like Utah that struggles to stop pretty much everyone and anyone these days, reaching an OVER on 21.5 points – which he’s accomplished in four-straight appearances and five of his last six – should be a breeze.

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Mark Williams OVER 16.5 Points vs. Bulls (-106)

Preview: Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET

A recent trade which sent Nick Richards to the Phoenix Suns will free up more offensive responsibility for all seven feet and 240 pounds of Charlotte Hornets big man Mark Williams, who just established a career high in scoring on Wednesday with 31 points on 12-of-14 shooting against the Jazz.

The Chicago Bulls host Charlotte on Friday, which should be a fruitful encounter for Williams as Chicago allows the fifth-most points to opposing centers and the second-most over its last seven games. The spread is set at five points, so oddsmakers project this matchup to remain fairly close from start to finish, and if that rings true, Williams should see a solid chunk of playing time coming off a career-best 36 minutes just 48 hours ago.

With an OVER hitting in four of his last six games even with Richards in the mix back then, Williams should be in store for another stellar box score.

Bonus Prop (Everyone Scores!): Jayson Tatum Alt 25+ Points vs. Magic, Jalen Brunson Alt 25+ Points vs. Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic Alt 25+ Points vs. Heat, LaMelo Ball Alt 25+ Points vs. Bulls, LeBron James Alt 25+ Points vs. Nets (+795)

Our friends at Caesars Sportsbook have a special parlay boost in place for Friday’s schedule involving several of the biggest names in the league each scoring at least 25 points in their respective matchups.

It would require Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson, Nikola Jokic, LaMelo Ball, and LeBron James to each pull it off, but as some of the most prolific scorers in the game today, there’s enough incentive here to hit up Caesars and place a wager with such tremendous upside.