Weather model promises the harshest onset of winter in years

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Stand: January 3, 2025, 11:59 a.m

Von: Dominik Jung

PressSplit

Some weather models expect icy cold and snow down to low altitudes. But how certain are the forecasts? These are the possible scenarios.

Kassel – The GFS weather model is causing a stir: From Thursday (January 2nd), polar air masses could flood Germany and bring icy cold. It is expected to snow, especially from 300 to 400 meters altitude, and a blanket of snow could form. Nights with temperatures down to -20 degrees would be possible next week, accompanied by light to moderate permanent frost.

Weather model announces winter hammer: would be the coldest weather phase in years

But other weather models see it as less dramatic – a warning sign that the cold snap is so far only a scenario. If the GFS calculations come true, this could be the coldest period of weather in years. Winter fans are hopeful, but caution remains advised.

On Saturday (January 4th) light frost may occur even in low altitudes. © METEORED/ www.daswetter.com

Weather forecast with extreme minus temperatures

If the snow cover reaches lower altitudes, it will cool down particularly sharply when the sky is clear. Snow reflects the earth’s heat back into the sky, causing the ground to cool quickly. This is called the radiation effect and could cause temperatures of -10 to -20 degrees on clear nights. These extreme values ​​would be a challenge: heating systems would have to run at full speed, cars would ice up, and airports would have to be permanently de-iced. Even small delays could lead to major problems.

There will be a lot of work for our winter services in the coming days, especially in the low mountain ranges and Alps. © IMAGO/Rene Traut

Different winter scenarios: Which weather trend will prevail?

Winter fans dream of snow-covered landscapes and magical frost, but the warning remains: GFS shows a single trend, other models such as ECMWF calculate more mildly. A lot depends on the snow cover, which is crucial for cooling down. While GFS keeps the frost down to low altitudes, ECMWF sees more changeable weather with temperatures above freezing. It remains exciting to see which trend will prevail – the coming days will bring clarity.

wetter.net – the weather in a nutshell!

This article was created in a content partnership with wetter.net. wetter.net offers you everything you need to know about weather and climate. On our pages you will find worldwide city and location forecasts for the next 14 days, with a 1-hour time resolution for the first 7 days and a 3-hour time resolution for the following days. Weather forecasts, precipitation radar, measured values, weather warnings, Germany weather and weather news provide information about current developments as well as the coming hours and days.

Meteorologist recommends preparation for cold weather

If the cold hammer strikes, caution is advised. Warm clothing, skin care against the cold and well-insulated water pipes are mandatory. Infrastructure such as airports and roads would have to be prepared for ice and snow in order to avoid major failures. For winter fans, the hope remains that GFS will prevail and Germany will experience real winter splendor. But whether this will actually happen remains to be seen – the weather models disagree.

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