1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
$38M 3-Day Domestic Weekend
$59.9M 5-Day Holiday Weekend
$137.5M Domestic Cume | $211.5M Global Cume
Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 sprinted to a photo finish with Mufasa: The Lion King over this 3-Day holiday frame, taking in an estimated $38M on 3,769 screens (-37% drop, $10,082 PSA) over the Disney prequel’s $37.1M. That’s tight enough that we may need to wait for Monday’s actuals to declare a true winner, but it is an excellent performance for both films. Overall, this is right in the middle of where our panel forecast this title and solidifies Sonic as a dependable cash cow for the studio in the coming years.
However, Sonic took a slight dive over Christmas Wednesday/Thursday as many families that watched the Hedgehog’s last frame frequented Mufasa, although it should be noted that the Lions had a 331-screen advantage. Mufasa ultimately won the overall 5-Day weekend, but Sonic has no reason to feel blue as the threequel’s $136.8M is close to surpassing the first movie’s $146M domestic cume after only 2 frames. It’s also ahead of Sonic 2‘s $118.9M at this same point in its 2022 run and is on pace to surpass the second film’s $190.8M cume by week 4 or 5.
Here’s how the 5-Day looked…
- Wednesday – $10.35M
- Thursday – $11.55M
- Friday – $12.6M
- Saturday – $13.5M
- Sunday – $11.9M
Paramount also had a huge strategic win by allowing Sonic 3 to wait a week after Mufasa to open internationally, raking in an estimated $74M, including paid previews (less than Mufasa‘s $87.2M debut). That’s the biggest overseas opening of the Sonic franchise, 83% above Sonic 2 in like markets. The top 3 territories were the UK ($15.1M), Mexico ($10.3M), and France ($7.3M). There are still 10 markets left to open, including the Korea, Brazil, and Italy rollouts next weekend. Global cume stands at $211.5M, well behind Mufasa's $327.9M.
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
$37.1M 3-Day Domestic Weekend
$63.8M 5-Day Holiday Weekend
$113.5M Domestic Cume | $328M Global Cume
After a disappointing opening, Mufasa: The Lion King roared back with $37.1M (+5% over frame 1) over the 3-Day on 4,100 screens for a $9,049 PSA, maintaining the #2 spot. It also handily won Christmas Day with $14.7M over Sonic‘s $10.3M, ultimately triumphing in the 5-Day derby with $63.8M over the blue guy’s $59.8M. This performance is well above our forecasted range for the weekend. Overall, Mufasa‘s domestic cume of $113.4M is still trailing behind Sonic‘s $136.8M and will likely have a similar “Tortoise v Hare” situation as Wicked and Moana 2.
Here’s how the 5-Day looked…
- Wednesday – $14.7M
- Thursday – $12M
- Friday – $12M
- Saturday – $13.2M
- Sunday – $11.9M
Mufasa took in an additional $77.1M in 52 material territories, and -despite Hedgehog competition- it remained the #1 non-local film in France, Germany, Italy, Korea, China, Spain, and the UK (the latter two excluding Sonic 3 previews). That second frame overseas take is also larger than Sonic’s first frame debut, indicating an overall international advantage for the Disney prequel, which surely translates better than the largely American Hedgehog cast. IMAX global only dipped 4% at $8M ($3.8M domestic, $23.1M global cume).
3. Nosferatu
Focus Features | NEW
$21.1M 3-Day Domestic Opening Weekend
$40.3M 5-Day Holiday Opening Weekend
$43.3M Global Cume
After making three moderate art house performers, filmmaker Robert Eggers stepped into the big time with Focus Features’ Nosferatu remake, which opened above expectations with a $21.1M 3-Day on 2,992 screens for a $7,069 PSA, along with a $40.3M 5-Day holiday gross. Late post-Mufasa IMAX showings in select locations since Christmas Day yielded $1.7M domestic, with an IMAX expansion to 46 countries next week. According to the studio, this is the highest Christmas Day ever for a genre film ($11.5M vs The Faculty‘s $4.4M) and the highest-grossing 3-Day Christmas weekend for a genre film (beating The Faculty‘s $11.6M).
We can compare this to other 3-Day openings for period vampire movies, including $30.5M for 1992’s Bram Stoker’s Dracula1994’s Interview With the Vampire ($36.3M), 2012's Dark Shadows ($29.6M), 2012’s Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($16.3M), 2014's Dracula Untold ($23.5M). Another favorable comparison would be to Guillermo Del Toro’s 2015 gothic horror pic Crimson Peakwhich only took in $13.1M on roughly the same number of screens during its summer bow. Clearly, Nosferatu‘s success is a combination of quality filmmaking, name recognition, Christmas counter-programming, and appropriate winter timing for the gloomy fright flick.
Here’s how the 5-Day looked…
- Wednesday – $11.5M
- Thursday – $7.6M
- Friday – $7.27M
- Saturday – $7.8M
- Sunday – $6M
While the film is at 86% on RT, audience score is 75% while CinemaScore was a “B-“… perfectly in line with a typical well-received horror movie. Polls show that the horror genre itself drew 48% of the crowd. Audiences skewed 54% male/46% female, with 65% of ticket buyers between ages 18-34. Demographics showed 58% Caucasian followed by 22% Latin American, with an estimated 59% same-day walk-up business.
Nosferatu opened in an initial five overseas markets this weekend, grossing a total of $3M across Spain, France, Belgium and French-speaking Switzerland. This movie could fly once it plays in more territories, as Crimson Peak did with $43.8M overseas vs $31M domestic. The international cast and tributes to the European filmmaking tradition of F.W. Murnau and Hammer Studios should make Nosferatu a winner once it launches in key markets, including Australia (Jan 1), Italy (Jan 1), UK & Ireland (Jan 1), Mexico (Jan 1), Brazil (Jan 2), Germany (Jan 2), Korea (Jan 15), and Japan (May 16).
6. A Complete Unknown
Searchlight Pictures | NEW
$11.6M 3-Day Domestic Opening Weekend
$23.17M 5-Day Holiday Opening Weekend
Searchlight had their biggest post-Disney acquisition/post-pandemic opening with the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknownearning a solid debut at #6 with an $11.6M 3-Day weekend on 2835 screens for a $4,092 PSA. This represents the biggest non-franchise opening for star Timothée Chalamet as a leading man after the two Dune‘s and Wonka. That $23.17M 5-Day is also about on par with the 3-Day (unadjusted) $22.3M debut of James Mangold’s Walk the Linealthough far below that biopic’s PSA of $7,547. As we stated in our preview, Dylan has less universal appeal than Johnny Cash… even though Cash is in Complete Unknownplayed by Boyd Holbrook.
Here’s how the 5-Day looked, including $1.4M in Christmas Eve previews…
- Wednesday – $7.2M
- Thursday – $4.3M
- Friday – $3.9M
- Saturday – $4.1M
- Sunday – $3.6M
Pic was bolstered by terrific audience scores, including 96% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, an “A” CinemaScore, and a 5-star PostTrak rating with 62% “excellent”/92% total positive. Critical is also at 79% Certified Fresh (comparable to Walk the Line‘s 83%), making awards season ticket sale momentum a certainty. Unknown‘s performance was better than last Christmas’ Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody ($4.7M 3-Day), though lower than February’s Bob Marley: One Love ($28.6M 3-Day/$33.6M President’s Day 4-Day). In terms of musician biopics, Mangold’s new film is playing comparatively to summer 2014’s Jersey Boyswhich opened to a 3-Day of $13.3M on 2,905 screens with a $4,585 PSA, ultimately finishing its run with $47M from North America.
Other Notable Performances
Universal’s Wicked continues to defy gravity as it posted a $19.4M 3-Day take (+37% over last week) at #4 and $31.7M over the 5-Day, no doubt spurned on by sing-along screenings. Domestic cume has now passed the $400M milestone at $424.2M, topping Moana 2 ($394.6M) and Despicable Me 4 ($361M) as the official #3 stateside earner of the year. It also passed the $600M mark globally with $634.4M, enough to replace Oh mama! ($584.4M) as the #1 musical of all time worldwide.
A24’s erotic thriller Babygirlheadlined by Ms. AMC Pre-Show herself Nicole Kidman, took the #7 spot with $4.39M on 2,115 screens for a PSA of $2,077. The 5-Day grand total comes to $7.24M, already close to besting the entire domestic cume of the studio’s other 2024 erotic thriller Love Lies Bleeding ($7.8M), although that title topped out at 1,828 screens. CinemaScore was a “B-” alongside a 53% audience score on RT, which may be a sign this one is frontloaded.
Amazon/MGM Studios’ The Fire Inside hit the charts at #10 with an estimated $2M on 2,006 screens for a $1,012 PSA, with a 5-day domestic cume of $4.3M. The Barry Jenkins’ penned female boxing story gives the filmmaker two films in the Top Ten alongside Mufasa. The true story of Claressa Shields, which received an “A” CinemaScore and a consensus 94% critical/95% audience on RT, stars Ryan Destiny and Brian Tyree Henry, and is helmed by Rachel Morrison. Word-of-mouth could push this one to leg it out through February.
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates
Weekend 52 – 2024
Total 3-Day Domestic Estimates:
$163,276,860M | (+30.9% vs 2023)
| Title | Weekend Estimate | % Change | Locations | Location Change | PSA | Domestic Total | Week | Distributor |
| Sonic the Hedgehog 3 | $38,000,000 | -37% | 3,769 | 8 | $10,082 | $136,877,000 | 2 | Paramount |
| Mufasa: The Lion King | $37,100,000 | +5% | 4,100 | n/c | $9,049 | $113,483,537 | 2 | Walt Disney |
| Nosferatu | $21,150,000 | $2,992 | $7,069 | $40,304,000 | 1 | Focus Features | ||
| Wicked | $19,450,000 | +37% | $3,177 | -119 | $6,122 | $424,231,000 | 6 | Universal |
| Moana 2 | $18,200,000 | +38% | $3,410 | -190 | $5,337 | $394,605,425 | 5 | Walt Disney |
| A Complete Unknown | $11,600,000 | $2,835 | $4,092 | $23,174,043 | 1 | Searchlight | ||
| Babygirl | $4,392,538 | 2,115 | $2,077 | $7,240,378 | 1 | A24 | ||
| Gladiator II | $4,150,000 | -9% | 1,865 | -532 | $2,225 | $163,066,000 | 6 | Paramount |
| Homestead | $3,190,170 | -47% | 1,769 | -117 | $1,803 | $12,897,241 | 2 | Angel Studios |
| The Fire Inside | $2,031,000 | 2,006 | $1,012 | $4,330,705 | 1 | Amazon MGM | ||
| Kraven the Hunter | $1,700,000 | -44% | 2,437 | -774 | $698 | $21,388,000 | 3 | Sony |
| The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim | $455,000 | -63% | 1,135 | -1,467 | $401 | $8,590,000 | 3 | Warner Bros. |
| The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $335,000 | -57% | 497 | -364 | $674 | $39,719,951 | 8 | Lionsgate |
| The Brutalist | $203,153 | -24% | 7 | 3 | $29,022 | $687,444 | 2 | A24 |
| Flow | $194,850 | -16% | 109 | -90 | $1,788 | $2,201,071 | 6 | Janus Films |
| A Real Pain | $153,000 | -33% | 100 | -60 | $1,530 | $7,664,187 | 9 | Searchlight |
| Anora | $118,250 | -32% | 115 | -3 | $1,028 | $14,081,563 | 11 | Neon |
| Conclave | $69,000 | -33% | 57 | -54 | $1,211 | $31,247,000 | 10 | Focus Features |
| All We Imagine as Light | $53,700 | -16% | 31 | -6 | $1,732 | $629,746 | 7 | Janus Films |
| Bloody Axe Wound | $45,000 | 237 | $190 | $45,000 | 1 | IFC Films | ||
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | $36,000 | 96% | 18 | 8 | $2,000 | $227,559 | 5 | Neon |
| Nickel Boys | $32,000 | -49% | 5 | n/c | $6,400 | $215,030 | 3 | Amazon MGM |
| The Wild Robot | $30,000 | -36% | 102 | -19 | $294 | $143,166,000 | 14 | Universal |
| September 5 | $22,000 | -40% | 5 | -2 | $4,400 | $205,000 | 3 | Paramount |
| Better Man | $18,000 | 6 | $3,000 | $35,000 | 1 | Paramount | ||
| The Count of Monte Cristo | $17,500 | n/c | 4 | n/c | $4,375 | $57,495 | 2 | Samuel Goldwyn |
| Vermilion | $8,450 | 1 | $8,450 | $8,450 | 1 | Janus Films | ||
| 2073 | $5,115 | 2 | $2,558 | $5,115 | 1 | Neon | ||
| Santosh | $5,100 | 1 | $5,100 | $5,100 | 1 | Metrograph |
