Fantasy Football Fix 23 Dec. 2024
Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 18
Dive into our weekly analysis where we spotlight the top performers from the previous Gameweek, examine the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players to consider for your lineup this week.
Stay ahead of the competition in your Fantasy Premier League journey with our expert insights and strategic tips designed to boost your success!
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Expected FPL Points Review – A Look at the Stats
As the below image shows, Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 18 with a score of 19.0. The Egyptian international took more shots in the box (seven) than any player over the weekend and was also joint-top for ‘big chances’ (three). Two of his three attempted assists were deemed ‘big chances’ by Opta as well.
Isak bagged his first ever Premier League hattrick against Ipswich. The Swedish international took five shots in the box, three of which were ‘big chances’ and also attempted two assists, leading to an xFPL score of 12.2
B. Fernandes was joint-top for shots (seven), but just two of the Portuguese international’s attempts were in the box. He did also attempt four assists and notched an xFPL score of 6.0.
Foden put his hand up as a potential Saka replacement ahead of Man. City’s run of fixtures, the 24-year-old was top amongst their players for shots (six) and landed four efforts on target, only Isak and Luis Díaz (five each) managed more. The England international registered an xFPL score of 8.0 with just one chance created.
G. Jesus could potentially start more games for Arsenal in Saka’s absence, the Brazilian international took five shots in the box, two of which were ‘big chances’ and racked up an impressive FPL score of 16 points. His xFPL score of 7.9 shows that his returns may have been a tad fortunate.
What is xFPL?
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed – Which Players are FPL managers buying and selling?
As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Isak is the most popular transfer in for Gameweek 18 so far. Nearly 500,000 FPL managers have brought him in at the time of writing.
G. Jesus, Rogers, Aina and Salah are also popular acquisitions with the quartet all bagging double-digit FPL hauls.
Saka’s potential injury has seen him transferred out by over half a million FPL managers already, while nearly 200,000 have parted ways with Haaland in defiance of Man. City’s fixture run improving soon.
Despite his nine-point return, Cunha to Isak tops the Top 10 Forward transfer combinations (23.7%) with G. Jesus and Wood also popular replacements. Isak, Wood and G. Jesus account for all of the top 10 forward transfers in.
A look at the midfield transfer combinations in the image above shows that selling Saka is the priority. No player accounts for more than 10% of the transfers in, with Luis Díaz, B. Fernandes and I. Sarr the most popular.
The Top 10 defender transfer combinations indicates that selling Greaves, Mazraoui and Aït-Nouri for Alexander-Arnold is popular, which indicates that FPL managers have funds to invest after selling Saka. Muñoz and Aina are also popular transfers in.
Best Saka replacements – B. Fernandes vs Ødegaard
As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, B. Fernandes and Ødegaard have played a similar number of minutes over the last six Gameweeks, with the former scoring nine more FPL points at an average of 5.5 versus 4.0 for the latter.
B. Fernandes dominates all the attacking metrics. The Portuguese international has taken more shots (16 vs nine), landed more attempts on target (six vs three) and has attempted more assists (16 vs 15).
However, a closer look shows that there’s not that much to split them, with the pair tied for shots in the box (seven) and ‘big chances’ created (two). With Saka possibly injured, Ødegaard might assume penalty duties as well.
As the above image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings shows, Arsenal are rated third for ‘Attack Difficulty’ over the next six Gameweeks with Man. Utd. in seventh, which might tip the scales slightly towards the Norwegian international.
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