Winter is fast approaching and with it, questions about the weather that awaits us.
Will we be entitled to a white coat this year? Will ski resorts be able to open? Should we expect cold spells?
Let’s discover the weather forecasts for winter 2024-2025 in France and Europe, keeping in mind that these long-term projections are subject to change.
A generally mild winter in perspective
The different weather models agree on a general trend: winter 2024-2025 should be warmer than normal. Weather France estimates that there is a 50% chance that the period will be warmer than seasonal norms, and only a 25% chance that it will be colder. This trend is confirmed by a Météo-Paris forecaster, who anticipates a winter that is “calmer and drier, with often mild temperatures”.
Temperature deviations from seasonal averages vary depending on the source, but we are generally talking about +0.5°C to +1.5°C above normal. This mildness would be particularly marked in the South of France, particularly around the Mediterranean and the Atlantic coast.
Month by month analysis
December 2024: A mild start to winter
The end of December promises to be particularly mild, with temperatures often above seasonal norms. High pressure is expected to dominate, making snowfall rare, even in lower altitude ski areas. We can expect:
- Dry and calm weather on the Atlantic coast
- Wetter conditions in the northern half, but without significant snow
- Frequent thermal inversions in the mountains, bringing a certain softness
January 2025: Between mildness and possible cold snaps
The month of January could be marked by some variability. If the general trend remains mild, with average temperatures around 1°C above normal, a few cooler periods cannot be ruled out. Forecasters note:
- A possible “dry anomaly”, with cold mornings but mild days
- A risk of occasional cold spells, especially at the end of the month
- Snowfall mainly limited to medium and high mountains
February 2025: Softness and humidity on the agenda
February promises to be the mildest month of winter, with temperatures that can exceed the seasonal average by 1° to 2°C. Forecasts indicate:
- Very mild and humid weather
- An increased risk of storms, particularly on the Atlantic coast
- Sporadic snowfall at low altitudes, but more significant in mid and high mountains
What about precipitation?
Unlike temperatures, forecasts for precipitation are less clear-cut. Some models predict near-average precipitation throughout the season, while others anticipate a deficit, particularly in December.
It is necessary to specify that even if the overall precipitation total could be close to normal, their distribution could be uneven. We could thus observe:
- Dry weather in the South-East, Center and West of France
- Less frequent ocean disturbances
- A possible return of precipitation in January and February
This could worsen drought problems in some regions, with potential implications for agriculture and water management.
The snow in question
With generally mild temperatures, snow cover could be limited this winter, especially in the plains and mid-mountains. Forecasts suggest:
- Rare and limited snow episodes in the North-East and certain regions of the Center in the plains
- Modest snow cover in mid-mountains, with an often high rain-snow limit
- Good snowfall expected in mountain ranges like the Alps and the Pyrenees, especially at high altitudes
This situation could be favorable for high altitude ski resorts, but more problematic for those located at lower altitudes.
Factors influencing these forecasts
Several weather and climate phenomena influence these long-term forecasts:
The polar vortex
The polar vortex plays a crucial role in winter weather conditions in Europe. Its configuration can influence the distribution of cold air masses:
- A zonal circulation (concentrated vortex) favors mild and dry weather in Europe
- A meridional circulation (deconcentrated vortex) can direct cold air masses towards our latitudes
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
L’North Atlantic Oscillation influences weather conditions in Europe. A negative NAO could favor northern blockages and winter conditions in Europe, but this scenario seems unlikely for this winter.
The La Niña phenomenon
The presence of The Girl during the winter of 2024-2025 could have impacts on European weather, although its effects will be less direct than on other regions of the globe. This phenomenon is associated with a cold anomaly in Pacific waters and could favor polar shifts towards mid-latitudes.
Implications of climate change
These forecasts are part of a context of global climate change. 2024 is expected to be warmer than 2023, with France likely around the 5th or 6th warmest year since records began.
This warming trend directly influences our winters, making them on average milder and less snowy, particularly at low and medium altitudes. This raises important questions for the future, including:
- The adaptation of ski resorts, especially those at low altitude
- Water resources management, with implications for agriculture and drinking water supply
- The evolution of biodiversity in the face of these climate changes
Prudence and adaptability
It is crucial to remember that these seasonal forecasts, although useful for identifying trends, remain subject to a significant margin of uncertainty. Actual weather conditions may deviate significantly from these projections, particularly at local scales and over short periods of time.
For this reason, it is recommended to:
- Monitor short-term weather reports regularly
- Remain vigilant in the face of possible sudden changes in weather, particularly in the mountains
- Adapt to actual conditions rather than relying solely on long-term forecasts
Outlook for spring 2025
Although winter has not yet begun, weather models are already outlining some trends for the start of spring 2025. March 2025 could experience:
- Dry and mild weather
- A deficit of precipitation
- Temperatures above seasonal averages
- A risk of late frosts, despite the general mildness
These projections, even more uncertain than those for winter, will have to be refined over the weeks. They nevertheless underline the general warming trend and the possibility of an early transition towards spring conditions.
As we prepare for this winter of 2024-2025, let’s keep in mind that weather remains a complex and sometimes unpredictable area. Surprises, whether pleasant or not, are an integral part of our experience of the seasons. Let’s stay attentive to developments and prepare ourselves for a winter which, although it promises to be mild, could nevertheless have some surprises in store for us.
