Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins
West Side
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 77 to 83. North winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
South Side
Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 73. North winds up to 10 mph.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Friday: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
North Shore
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Sunny. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Friday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Upcountry
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.
East Maui
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Travel In Fours
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 56 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Synopsis
Stable and relatively dry conditions will persist through most of the forecast period, with the possible exception of a brief uptick in windward showers today and Sunday night into Monday as two successive fronts approach the area. Light winds in advance of these fronts will bring periods of land and sea breezes, with afternoon clouds and a few brief showers over interior and leeward areas. Trade winds will strengthen early next week.
Discussion
The latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front approximately 100 miles north-northwest of Kauai, with a surface ridge draped across the islands. Radar and satellite imagery early this morning show a few low clouds and light showers across mainly the western half of the state in the convergence zone between the front and the ridge. Elsewhere there are little to no clouds. With the ridge across the state expect rather light winds to continue into the afternoon. This will allow sea breezes to develop during the day bringing low clouds and a few showers to leeward and inland areas.
Fairly dry and stable conditions will persist through the week with minimal rainfall expected despite a couple of fronts moving near the area. Guidance continues to show the weak cold front dissipating later today as it sags across the western end of the state. Conditions look to remain rather dry along the front, with only a slight uptick in showers expected across mainly windward and mauka areas of Kauai and Oahu. Light to moderate trade winds will briefly fill in behind the dissipating front on Friday before winds weaken in response to the next approaching front. Will see a return to a land and sea breeze regime over the weekend with afternoon clouds and a few showers over the interior clearing out overnight. Another front looks to approach the state Sunday night into Monday, then dissipate over or just north of the area. Once again, don’t expect to see much rain with the front.
Easterly trades winds will fill in behind the front and strengthen through Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north of the state and slides eastward. Pockets of moisture will move in on the trades, but generally dry and stable conditions will persist as ridging aloft dominates.
Aviation
Light trades will allow the sea/land breeze regime to continue. With a front approaching from the north an uptick in SHRA coverage is possible especially to the western end of the state. While SHRA should be on the lighter side, its possible to have some brief MVFR conds. VFR conds should prevail.
No AIRMETs in effect.
Marine
No significant changes to the forecast early this morning. The gentle and variable winds will continue through much of the upcoming weekend with a ridge near or over the islands. The ridge is over the central islands early this morning, with a dissipating front north of the islands. A weak but fast moving high pressure system currently west-northwest of the islands will help to push the front over the western end of the state today. Light and variable winds across the coastal waters this morning will become northerly the afternoon, and then give way to light easterly flow Friday. As the ridge moves back over the islands Friday night through Sunday, expect more gentle and variable winds. Fresh trades may redevelop Sunday night or Monday.
A series of large to extra large northwest to north-northwest swells will continue through the weekend, peaking Sunday. The current swell has been running 13 to 14 ft at 14 to 15 seconds overnight, which continues the trend of being about 2 ft above guidance. The forecast continues to reflect this, and see no reason to deviate at this time. The PacIOOS buoys at Hanalei has shown a mix of the 17 and 15 second swells, while Waimea is predominately still picking up on the initial 17 second swell. Both are running around 10 to 11 ft. Anticipate the 15 second swell to build in today. The High Surf Warning (HSW) remains in place for most north and west facing shores from Kauai to Maui through Friday. Given the direction of the swell (315 to 325 degrees) elevated surf is not expected along leeward portions of the Big Island through this morning. A High Surf Advisory may be needed later today, but at this time will be holding off to see how and when that pulse reaches the islands. A series of storm lows passing northwest of Hawaii will send additional overlapping northwest (320 to 330 degrees) swells that should keep surf near or above HSW levels most of the time through the weekend, and the HSW will likely be extended beyond its current expiration on Friday afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the largest swell arriving on Sunday, with the ECMWF model advertising in excess of 18 feet. While winds will remain rather light through the weekend, seas will be above the 10 foot Small Craft Advisory threshold for waters exposed to the large swells.
Aside from areas exposed to wrapping northwest swell, surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through much of the week. The best chance for a small rise in southwest swell will be on today and Friday.
Fire weather
No critical fire weather conditions anticipated through the rest of the week due to a combination of light winds and relative humidity (RH) values above 45 percent. Trades will strengthen early next week, but RH will remain above critical levels.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.
Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!
Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
