INSEE Occitanie has just revealed the legal populations which will come into force on January 1, 2025, based as usual on population statistics three years ago. Over the period 2016-2022, the demographic growth of Ariège is fueled by a strong migratory surge, when the natural balance is ever more negative.
The statisticians have done their math: over the period 2016-2022, Ariège gained on average 379 inhabitants each year, to reach a reference population of 155,339 people. This is around 2,200 more inhabitants than in 2016, and growth has accelerated compared to the previous five-year period. Above all, the migratory balance is 0.7% per year, very close to the 0.8% observed for the whole of Occitania – in a period which includes the famous Covid years.
Municipal population as of January 1, 2022 and average annual change between 2016 and 2022
Municipal population as of January 1, 2016 and average annual change between 2011 and 2016
In more detail, Pamiers posted an insolent growth of 0.9% per year, much more significant than the 0.3% for the period 2011-2016. Foix is regaining color by regaining inhabitants (+0.2% per year) after a period of decline. At La Tour du Crieu and Varilhes, we continue to progress, but much slower than at the start of the 2010 decade.
Conversely, St-Jean du Falga and Mirepoix have started a downward cycle after positive years. St-Girons is still decreasing, as are Tarascon and Lavelanet – but in the latter two cases, the decline is less steep than between 2011 and 2016.
Municipal population as of January 1, 2022 and average annual change between 2016 and 2022
For the record: on January 1st, the new commune of Caychax-et-Senconac will be born, resulting from the merger of the two neighboring villages on the Corniches road, in Haute-Ariège. Senconac will therefore no longer be the smallest municipality in Ariège (nor the 3rd smallest in the Occitanie Region), since the municipal population of the new municipality will reach 20 inhabitants. The title will therefore go to the village of Lercoul, in the Vicdessos valley, which officially has 14 inhabitants.
A very buoyant regional context…
All this takes place in a regional context showing the strong dynamism of Occitanie, which could in the short term become the 3rd region of France. In the process, Toulouse could overtake Lyon to become the 3rd French municipality behind Paris and Marseille.
That said, Occitanie was marked in 2023 by a sharp drop in births. The Region has a negative natural balance, with a number of deaths greater than that of births – since 2016. According to the central INSEE scenario, Occitanie could have 6.6 million inhabitants, or 500,000 more than Today. Hte-Garonne, Tarn, Tarn et Garonne, Hérault and Ariège should, however, continue their growth at least until 2070.
A. C.
