A quick explanation of the S&P500. Is now the best time? The trend has not changed, so we will continue to buy[Tonight’s outlook]2024/12/19 #Foreign Doki

Video explaining the outlook

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2024/12/19～

S&P500: Latest outlook

Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell by over 200 points. The main reason for this decline is the content of the FOMC’s policy rate outlook (dot chart). The policy interest rate itself was decided to be cut by 0.25% as expected, but the outlook for interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 has been revised downward to two times from four times as of September. This turned out to be a more hawkish outlook than the market expected, causing the stock price to fall.

However, from a technical analysis point of view, the following points are noteworthy:

Signs that the RSI will bottom out at around 30 levels
80-day moving average acts as support
The weekly 13-week moving average is acting as an important support line.

It is expected that the current level of around 5,900 points will temporarily return to 6,000 points. This 6,000 point is an important resistance line, and whether or not it can be broken through is an important point that will determine the future direction.

If it exceeds 6000 points: It suggests a continuation of the uptrend.
In case of a fall at 6000 points: Possibility of searching for further downside

However, if the price closes below the 13-week moving average, we should consider a drop to around 5500-5400 points.
Overall, despite yesterday’s significant decline, it is judged that the basic uptrend has not broken, and this downturn may provide a new opportunity to buy on the bullshit. The position of this weekend’s closing price will be important in determining the future direction.

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Researcher, Research Department, Gaitame.com Research Institute
Shuhei Uehara
International Federation of Technical Analysts Certified Technical Analyst (CFTe) Joined the financial industry in 2015 and worked in customer support. He also works as a lecturer at financial seminars. Joined Gaitame.com Research Institute in February 2022. Utilizing his experience and knowledge, he actively disseminates information to individual FX investors. Economic program specialty broadcasting station “Stock Voice” and Nippon Broadcasting System “Shinbo Jiro Zoom Are You Saying That Much!?” ”, and has made many appearances. Currently running a series on the outlook for the dollar yen and euro yen in the money magazine Diamond ZAi.

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