 – Yahoo! Finance](https://euro.dayfr.com/content/uploads/2024/12/18/4d0cc17d24.jpg)
●Main points
○The stock market in November experienced a relief rally and strong capital inflows as the election results were quickly finalized. The S&P 500 index set new closing highs six times, gaining 5.73% in November (for a total return of +5.87% including dividends). October was down 0.99% (-0.91%), September was up 2.02% (+2.14%), August was up 2.28% (+2.43%), and July was barely 1.1%. It showed strong growth, rising by 3% (up 1.22% from the same period), and rising by 3.47% (up 3.59% from the same period) and 4.80% (up 4.96% from the same period) in June and May, respectively. As a result, the price has increased by 6.80% in the past three months (up 7.15%), and has increased by 26.47% since the beginning of the year (up 28.07%), which corresponds to an annualized increase of 29.08% (up 30.86%). Over the past year, it has increased by 32.06% (+33.89%).
⇒The Magnificent Seven’s influence on the S&P 500 index has declined, and its share of year-to-date returns has fallen from 47% at the end of October to 44% at the end of November. It accounted for 32% of the index’s November return and 32% of its market capitalization. It accounts for 28% of the index’s return since the Nov. 5 presidential election.
○Main data for November
⇒The S&P 500 Index continued to set new closing highs in November (updated 6 times in November), ending the month with an increase of 5.73%. It fell by 0.99% in October, but before that it had increased for 5 consecutive months: September was up 2.02%, August was up 2.28%, July was up 1.13%, June was up 3.47%, In May, it increased by 4.80%. In November, prices rose on 15 of 20 business days (in October, prices rose on 11 of 23 business days). In November, the number of rising stocks increased significantly and exceeded the number of declining stocks, with 385 rising stocks and 118 declining stocks. In October, there were 199 rising stocks and 304 declining stocks. Trading volume in November increased by 17% compared to the previous month, and by 9% compared to the same month last year.
→All 11 sectors rose in November. Three sectors rose in October, and eight sectors rose in September. Consumer staples had the best performance in November, rising 13.24% (up 26.19% year-to-date and 11.09% since year-end 2021). Healthcare was the worst performer, up 0.13% (up 7.76%, up 4.25%).
⇒The S&P 500 index rose 5.73% in November (total return including dividends was +5.87%) and ended the month at 6032.38. In October, it decreased by 0.99% (-0.91%) to 5705.45, and in September, it rose 2.02% (+2.14%) to 5762.48. It has increased by 6.80% in the past three months (up 7.15%), 26.47% since the beginning of the year (up 28.07%), and 32.06% in the past year (up 33.89%). For the full year of 2023, it rose by 24.23% (+26.29%), and for the full year of 2022, it decreased by 19.44% (-18.11%).
→The S&P 500 index exceeded 5900 at the closing price for the first time in November, and also exceeded 6000, setting a new record high at closing price six times (highest price during trading hours was 6044.17, highest price at closing price was 6032.38) . It hit record highs 4 times in October, 5 times in September, 0 times in August, 7 times in July, and 7 times in June (0 times in April, 8 times in March, 2 8 times a month, 6 times in January). The highest price has been updated 53 times since the beginning of the year. In 2023, it was 0 times, in 2022 it was 1 time, and in 2021 it was 70 times (the previous high was 77 times in 1995).
→The price has increased by 78.15% (up 92.07%) from the high of February 19, 2020, which was reached before the coronavirus crisis.
○ The US 10-year government bond yield ended the month by dropping from 4.29% at the end of October to 4.18% (3.88% at the end of 2023, 3.88% at the end of 2022, 1.51% at the end of 2021, 0.92% at the end of 2020, 2019 1.92% at the end of the year, 2.69% at the end of 2018, and 2.41% at the end of 2017). The 30-year government bond yield fell to 4.36% from 4.48% at the end of October (4.04%, 3.97%, 1.91%, 1.65%, 2.30%, 3.02%, 3.05%). ).
○ The British pound fell from $1.2898 at the end of October to $1.2731 ($1.2742, $1.2099, $1.3525, $1.3673, $1.3253, $1.2754, $1.3498). The euro has fallen from $1.0883 at the end of October to $1.0574 ($1.0838, $1.0703, $1.1379, $1.2182, $1.1172, $1.1461, $1.2000). The yen (against the US dollar) rose from 152.08 yen to 149.66 yen at the end of October (141.02 yen, 132.21 yen, 115.08 yen, 103.24 yen, 108.76 yen, 109.58 yen, 112.68 yen). , the Chinese yuan depreciated from 7.1183 yuan to 7.2428 yuan at the end of October (7.1132 yuan, 6.9683 yuan, 6.3599 yuan, 6.6994 yuan, 6.9633 yuan, 6.8785 yuan, 6.5030 yuan).
○The price of crude oil at the end of November fell by 2.8%, from $70.57 per barrel at the end of October to $68.61 per barrel ($71.31 per barrel at the end of 2023 and $80.45 per barrel at the end of 2022). US gasoline prices (all grades according to EIA) fell 1.7% in November to $3.166 per gallon ($3.220 at the end of October, $3.238 at the end of 2023, $3.203 at the end of 2022, and $3.203 at the end of 2021). 3.375 dollars). Since the end of 2020, crude oil prices have increased by 41.7% (1 barrel = $48.42 at the end of 2020), and gasoline prices have increased by 35.9% (1 gallon = $2.330 at the end of 2020).
⇒According to the EIA report as of October 2024, the breakdown of gasoline prices is 55% crude oil, 18% sales and marketing costs, 11% refining costs, and 16% taxes.
○The gold price fell from 1 troy ounce = $2,757.80 at the end of October, and closed in November at $2,682.70 (end of 2023: $2,073.60, end of 2022) is $1829.80, $1901.60 at the end of 2021, $1520.00 at the end of 2020, $1284.70 at the end of 2019, $1305.00 at the end of 2018).
○The VIX fear index ended November with a decline from 23.16 at the end of October to 13.51. The highest for the month was 23.09 and the lowest was 13.49 (21.67 at the end of 2022, 17.22 at the end of 2021, 22.75 at the end of 2020, 13.78 at the end of 2019, and 16.12 at the end of 2018).
⇒The highest value of the index in 2023 was 30.81, and the lowest was 11.81.
⇒The highest value of the index in 2022 was 38.89, and the lowest was 16.34.
⇒The highest value of the index in 2021 was 37.51 and the lowest was 14.10.
⇒The highest value of the index in 2020 was 85.47, and the lowest was 11.75.
○Target stock price continues to rise. Market participants’ one-year target price for the S&P 500 index has increased for 12 consecutive months since the end of November 2023, and is 6,576, an increase of 9.0% from the current price (as of the end of October, it is 6,394, an increase of 12.1%, 6265 as of the end of September). Previously, the target value had been declining for two consecutive months until November 2023, after nine consecutive months of decline and 11 consecutive months of increase. The target price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average has also increased for 12 consecutive months through November, after three consecutive months of increases and two consecutive months of decline, rising 5.0% from the current price to $47,165 (as of the end of October). (up 9.4% to $45,704, or $44,468 at the end of September).
●US economy
○The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October was 48.5, up from 47.3 in September.
○The ISM manufacturing economy index for October was 46.5, down from 47.2 in September. The preliminary prediction was 47.6.
○The ISM non-manufacturing economy index for October was 56.0, up from 54.9 in September. It was expected to be 53.5, lower than last month.
○The service industry PMI in October was 55.0, down from 55.2 in September. This has been revised downward from the preliminary figure of 55.3.
○The preliminary PMI value for November was 48.8 for the manufacturing industry (as expected), up from 48.5 in October. The service sector index was 57.0 (expected 55.1), up from 55.0 in October.
○The consumer price index (CPI) in October rose 0.2% from the previous month (up 0.2% in September), as expected, and rose 2.6% compared to the same month last year (up 2.4% in September). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month (0.3% increase in September), and increased by 3.3% compared to the same month last year, the same as in September.
○The producer price index (PPI) in October increased by 0.2% from the previous month, as expected (September was revised upward from the initially announced flat rate to a 0.1% increase from the same month), and increased by 2.4% compared to the same month last year ( In September, it increased by 1.8%). Core PPI, which excludes the food, energy, and trade services sectors, increased by 0.3% from the previous month (September was revised downward from the originally announced 0.2% increase to 0.1%), and increased by 3.5% compared to the same month last year. , which accelerated from a 3.2% increase in September.
○Personal income in October increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month (advance forecast was a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month, September was increased by 0.3%), personal consumption increased by 0.4% (as expected, increased by 0.5% in September) It became. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month (up 0.2% in September), and increased by 2.3% year-on-year, accelerating from the 2.1% increase in September.
○The temporary housing sales contract index for October rose 2.0% from the previous month to 77.4 (September was 75.9). After rising 7.5% in September, prices were expected to fall 1.8% in October.
○The revised GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8% per year compared to the previous quarter, unchanged from the preliminary figure. Personal consumption increased by 3.5% (preliminary forecast was 3.7%, same as the preliminary estimate), and corporate profits increased by 14.2%.
○The revised labor productivity value for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.2% compared to the previous quarter (annualized), up from the 2.1% increase in the second quarter. Unit labor costs rose 1.9% year over year, down from a 2.4% rise in the second quarter.
○The industrial production index in October decreased by 0.3% from the previous month. The forecast for September has been revised downward from the originally announced 0.3% decline to a 0.5% decline. Capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, down from 77.4% in September.
○Automobile sales in October (annualized) were 16 million units, exceeding September’s 15.8 million units. Of this total, 12.4 million vehicles were sold in North America, up from 12.2 million in September.
○Construction spending in September increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month (as expected), and the figure for August was revised upward from the originally announced 0.1% decrease to a 0.1% increase compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, September’s sales increased by 4.8%, and August’s sales were revised upward from the originally announced 4.1% to 4.8%.
○Retail sales in October increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The prior forecast was for an increase of 0.3%. September’s sales have been revised upward from the originally announced 0.4% increase to 0.8% increase. Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.1%.
○ E-commerce retail sales in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter. The forecast for the second quarter of 2024 has been revised upward from the originally announced 1.3% increase to 1.6%.
○September manufacturing orders decreased by 0.5% from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The forecast for August has been revised downward from the originally announced 0.2% decrease to 0.8% decrease.
○Durable goods orders in October increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, compared to the previous forecast of 0.5% increase. The originally announced 0.8% decline in September has been revised to a 0.4% decline.
○September wholesale inventory decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, which has been revised downward from the preliminary figure of 0.1% decrease compared to the previous month. August has been revised upward from the originally announced 0.1% increase to 0.2% increase.
⇒October wholesale inventory increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, compared to the market forecast of being flat compared to the previous month. September’s sales have been revised downward from the originally announced 0.1% decrease to 0.2% decrease.
○Retail inventory in October increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month. September’s sales have been revised downward from the originally announced 0.8% increase to 0.6%.
○Preliminary figures for corporate inventories in September increased by 0.1% from the previous month, following the 0.3% increase from the previous month in August. Manufacturing inventory decreased by 0.2% (increased by 0.1% in August), retail inventory increased by 0.9% (increased by 0.8% in August), wholesale inventory decreased by 0.2% (increased by 0.2% in August). ) was.
○The balance of trade deficit in September expanded from $70.8 billion in August to $84.4 billion.
○Preliminary figures for the goods trade balance for October showed a deficit of $99.1 billion. Imports were down 5.4% from the previous month (up 4.0% in September), and exports were down 3.2% (down 2.0% in September).
○The import price index for October increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month (compared to a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous month). This was an increase of 0.8% compared to the same month last year, and a decrease of 0.1% in September. The export price index for October increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month (compared to a decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous month), compared to market expectations of a 0.1% decrease compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, it was down 0.1%, and in September it was down 2.1%.
○The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for November was 73.0, exceeding the market expectation of 70.8, and rising from 70.5 the previous month. Inflation expectations one year ahead were 2.6%, down from 2.7% last month.
⇒The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index’s final value for November was 71.8, and inflation expectations for the year ahead were 2.6%.
○The Consumer Confidence Index for November announced by the Conference Board, a private research organization, was 111.7, lower than the prior estimate of 112.3. The October figure has been revised upward from the originally announced 108.7 to 109.6.
○The leading economic index for October decreased by 0.4% from the previous month, compared to the market forecast of a 0.3% decline from the previous month. The forecast for September has been revised upward from the originally announced 0.5% decline to a 0.3% decline.
*Continued to “Trump’s landslide victory brings market rebound to record high (3)”
Stock search news (minkabu PRESS)
