The resounding arrival, on December 8, at the head of the Syrian state, of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTC), a former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, opens up a multitude of security questions for all Western countries. The main one concerns the future of the international coalition which was launched under the aegis of the United States in 2014 to fight against the Islamic State (IS) organization and whose end was announced in September.
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After ten years of activity, this international coalition of around thirty countries which fought against jihadism, throughout the Iraqi-Syrian zone, as part of an operation called “Inherent Resolve” (OIR), was preparing to disappear permanently. After the summer, at the end of a long and painful process begun in 2021, the United States and Iraq – a central country for IRO operations – announced that they had reached an agreement for a timetable for ” withdrawal “.
A first stage was to begin in 2025, with a reduction in personnel stationed on military bases in Baghdad and the province of Al-Anbar, bordering Syria. A second phase was to result, by the end of 2026, in an American disengagement from Kurdistan, while Washington until then had around 2,500 soldiers in Iraq. The American and allied presence was, in the long term, to be limited to training and advising the Iraqi forces, designated guarantors of future regional peace.
Security risks
But, faced with the risk of a security vacuum presented by the capture of Damascus by the HTC group, Washington did not wait to react. In addition to a vast campaign of airstrikes carried out, starting Sunday, on more than 75 IS targets, the United States announced, the same day, through its deputy secretary of defense for the Middle Orient, Daniel B. Shapiro, that they would not immediately renounce their presence in Syria. A country where around 900 American soldiers are stationed, helped by private military companies, “contractors”.
“We are aware that the chaotic circumstances (…) in Syria could give ISIS the opportunity to become active and plan external operations (…), and we are determined to work with our allies to continue destroying their abilities”, Shapiro said Sunday at a security conference in Bahrain organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “We are determined to ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS”, he added.
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