Ghost Army
Facing them, the army loyal to President Assad was nothing more than an empty shell, in a country whose economy, infrastructure and industry were ravaged by the conflict.
According to experts, in the first years of the war, human losses, desertions and refusals to conscript had reduced the troops by around half, initially numbering around 300,000 soldiers.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), the insurgents have not “encountered significant resistance” in their advance, and soldiers have repeatedly evacuated their positions across the country.
“Since 2011, we have witnessed a disintegration in terms of personnel, equipment and motivation of the army,” explains David Rigoulet-Roze of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
Underpaid, soldiers plunder resources and many young people refuse to be mobilized, he told AFP.
On Wednesday, the Syrian president announced an increase in the pay of career soldiers by 50%, but soldiers’ salaries have almost no value.
The army has not made an official comment since the fall of Damascus to rebels.
Fall of Bashar al-Assad: the president’s residence in Damascus looted, the presidential palace burned (VIDEOS)
Abandoned by his allies
Aggravating circumstance, the two major allies of the Syrian government, Russia and Iran, did not help this time.
It was thanks to their support that Bashar al-Assad succeeded in reconquering territories lost after 2011. In 2015, Russia’s intervention via air support reversed the course of the war in his favor.
The rebel offensive was launched while the Russian army is focused on the war in Ukraine. Russian airstrikes against rebel positions have been limited.
Iran, for its part, has long provided “military advisors” to Syrian troops, and supported pro-government armed groups on the ground.
But the Islamic Republic and its cronies, led by Lebanese Hezbollah, have emerged weakened from months of confrontation with Israel.
Before the rebel capture of Damascus, Nick Heras of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy made the survival of Syrian power dependent on “the extent to which Iran and Russia view Assad as useful to their strategies in the region.” “.
“If one or both of these allies decide that they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered,” he told AFP.
“He lived in luxury while we suffered”: In Damascus, men, women and children loot Assad’s residence
Hezbollah weakened
Hezbollah announced in 2013 that it had intervened alongside the Syrian regime, sending thousands of fighters to reinforce it. Since then, the Lebanese movement has been weakened by two months of open war with Israel, which bombed its strongholds and decimated its leadership, before a ceasefire came into force on November 27.
The Shiite formation has moved many fighters from Syria to southern Lebanon, and hundreds of its members have died in fighting with Israel, a source close to the movement told AFP, without providing an exact figure.
On Sunday, another source close to Hezbollah said the group was withdrawing its forces from around the capital and the Homs region near the border.
The fall of Assad is “a direct consequence” of the blows dealt to Iran and Hezbollah, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
