Earthquake on the Romanian political scene! The first results of the first round of the 2024 presidential elections were announced immediately after the polls closed at 21:00. Exit polls have been published. One is carried out by CURS, and the second by Avangarde and CIRA, while ARA Public is doing a sociological research. Both exit polls were presented by the news televisions, but also by Hotnews.
21:08
The counting will decide because the data does not include the votes from the diaspora, where the 800,000 votes mean about 8.4% of the total votes.
21:00
The big surprise is Călin Georgescu, the sovereignist independent, ranked immediately below Elena Lasconi and above George Simion, in these exit polls. If they remain the same in the following hours and are confirmed by the count, the final will be played on December 8 between Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and Elena Lasconi (USR). Nicolae Ciucă and the PNL, which occupies the fifth position in both polls, recorded a defeat on these dates.
Results EXIT-POLL Avangarde – CIRA, with data collected until 19.00:
- Marcel Ciolacu – 25%
- Elena Lasconi – 18%
- Călin Georgescu – 16%
- George Simion – 15%
- Nicolae Ciucă – 14%
- Mircea Geoana – 5%
EXIT-POLL COURSE results, with data collected until 20.00:
- Marcel Ciolacu – 25%
- Elena Lasconi – 18.1%
- Călin Georgescu – 16%
- George Simion – 14.1%
- Nicolae Ciucă – 13%
- Mircea Geoană – 5.5%
18:00
source Vanguardsone of the institutes that conducts an EXIT POLL for the 2024 presidential elections round 1, declared for HotNews that “tonight we may register a very big surprise at least for one of the two candidates who will qualify for the second round of the presidential elections” .
Who owns Avangarde and CIRA
The Socio-Behavioral Studies Group Avangarde SRL is 100% owned by the sociologist Marius Pieleanu.
Presshub writes that, according to termene.ro, the CIRA company has the same headquarters as Grupul de Studii Socio Comportamentale Avangarde SRL, the polling company of Marius Pieleanu. The company is owned by Vladimir Ionaș for 80% and Marius Pieleanu for 20%.
“CIRA does not say anywhere who represents the company, but from the Trade Register we can learn that although it has only one employee, its turnover has exploded to over 2 million lei in 2023. And, obviously, that employee does national surveys. It’s just a coincidence that the address and phone number (landline) are identical to those of the more famous Avangarde (really, does anyone know where Mr. Pieleanu is after the scandal of harassing female students?). Another coincidence is that the contact email address and mobile phone number belong to mr. Vladimir Ionaș, from the same company Avangarde”, wrote the director of the Center for Public Innovation, Ovidiu Voicu, on his Facebook account, quoted by Presshub.
Who owns COURSE
CURS is owned by former Antena 3 journalist Iosif Buble. The institute has given the results of many of the polls of the last 25 years, writes the publication Europa Liberă, which also provides some moments when the estimated figures were far from the subsequent results. Buble is also the owner of the website stiripesurse.ro which had advertising contracts with several politicians, parties or state institutions and companies.
Buble’s wife is former MP Diana Tușa, initially PNL, and later PSD. According to the wealth declaration that his wife submitted in June 2023, Iosif Buble collected dividends of approximately 4 million euros (18,819,754 lei) from the six companies in which he has shares.
ARA Public Opinion SRL is doing a sociological research
In addition to the two polls, ARA Public Opinion SRL was accredited by the Central Electoral Bureau to conduct a sociological survey for Antena3.
The polling firm ARA Public Opinion SRL was founded in November 2021, according to data available on termene.ro. The shareholder is Laurentiu Andrei Vasile (85%) and the company Lincoln Strategy Group LCC (15%), based in the United States.
Laurentiu Andrei Vasile was the son-in-law of the founder of the Intact trust, Dan Voiculescu, according to a G4Media article published in April 2024. He was married to Voiculescu’s youngest daughter, Corina, but they divorced a few years ago. They have three children together, according to the same source.
Incidentally, Laurențiu Andrei Vasile also appears as an administrator at the company “Antena 3 SA”, owned by Dan Voiculescu’s daughters (36%, respectively 30%), by the Dan Voiculescu Foundation for the Development of Romania (13%), by the moderator Mihai Gâdea ( 10%) and by another company, “Antena Holding SA” (10%), according to information from termene.ro, consulted by HotNews.ro.
