Stand: November 24, 2024, 1:03 p.m
Von: Dominik Jung
PressSplit
An erratic jet stream could radically reshape winter. A climatologist warns of extremes: from mild climates to icy cold.
Munich – The jet stream is increasingly becoming out of balance. Graduate meteorologist Dominik Jung von wetter.net warns: “An unstable jet stream causes chaotic winters: sometimes it brings mild air from the south, sometimes it brings ice-cold arctic cold air directly to Central Europe.” For the winter of 2024, this means that we could be threatened with either spring-like temperatures or a sudden cold snap, as has recently occurred in many places. A reliable course is hardly predictable.
The cause lies in the increasing warming of the Arctic. This causes the jet stream to lose energy, slow down and stall. Instead of changing weather conditions quickly, they can become stuck for weeks – with dramatic consequences.
Winter chaos in Germany: early spring or ice age? Meteorologist is sure: it will be extreme
Jung describes the jet stream as “a powerful air current that controls our weather.” The fluctuations could make the coming winter one of the most unpredictable in recent years. In some scenarios, warm air from the Mediterranean could give Germany a mild, rainy winter – with temperatures of up to 15 degrees on some days. On the other hand, the jet stream could bring freezing polar air to us, resulting in severe snowstorms or cold snaps. It is not yet clear which direction this will take.
The risk of stuck weather conditions then also increases. A weak jet stream can keep either rain fronts or high pressure areas with freezing cold air in a region for weeks. “The weather has become more extreme in recent years, and the winter of 2024/25 will be no exception,” explains Jung. The models show a tendency towards more dynamism, but also more chaos.
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“We have to prepare for everything”: Mild weather and snow chaos could join hands in winter
There is hope for winter fans, but no guarantee: a longer cold phase with snow could be just as likely as another mild winter. In a first, early winter forecast, there were many indications that the “cold season” would be remarkably mild.
The jet stream remains the wild card that decides whether Germany has to prepare for mulled wine when it snows or for spring fever in December. What’s particularly worrying is that even the long-range models can only provide vague predictions – the jet stream is making the weather more unpredictable than ever before.
“We have to prepare for everything,” emphasizes Jung. “The winter of 2024 could surprise us – with mild temperatures, frost chaos or both.” One thing is clear: the jet stream will continue to play a key role in the future, and its instability could give us permanently restless winters.
