The New York Knicks were widely hailed as one of the winners of the offseason, generating buzz and a wide-ranging belief that they were ready to contend in the Eastern Conference. They are currently the fourth seed in the East, a half-game out of third and 3.5 games behind the Celtics in the Atlantic Division.
The Suns were once declared the winners of the previous offseason, when they traded for Bradley Beal to build an All-Star “Big Three” with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. This offseason they brought in a championship-winning head coach in Mike Budenholzer and entered the season as the favorites to win the Pacific Division. They are currently tied for the fifth seed in the Western Conference, two games behind the Warriors for first place in both the West and the Pacific Division.
Does either team have value in the futures market? If so, in which markets?
All odds current as of publication. For latest odds, go to ESPN BET
Knicks on the rise
The Knicks started the season slowly, losing five of their first nine games by an average of 11.4 points. They’ve since won four of five, and their eight wins on the season have been convincing, by an average margin of 17.3 points.
Part of their slow start was likely due to tough competition, with their first two losses coming on the road at the Celtics and against the Cavaliers, the two top seeds in the East.
Another part was likely due to the team learning how to play together after rebuilding such a large part of their roster over the past year. Karl-Anthony Towns (October) and Mikal Bridges (July) were both added this offseason, and OG Anunoby (December) was still relatively new to being a Knick as well.
Then, there’s the team’s struggles on defense. While Towns is one of the best offensive big men in the league, he has not given the Knicks the kind of defensive toughness and rim protection they’ve gotten in the past from Mitchell Robinson or even Isaiah Hartenstein. The result on the court has been a team that looks a lot like Towns: excellent on offense (Knicks rank 3rd with a team Offensive Rating of 121.8 points per 100 possessions, fifth with an Offensive BPI of 2.4) but subpar on defense (21st with a team Defensive Rating of 115.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, 27th with a Defensive BPI of -2.5).
The good news for the Knicks is that their defense almost has to get better. Head Coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the best defensive minds in the league, and all three of their starting wings are plus defenders. Anunoby has been a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Bridges initially made his NBA name on the defensive end of the court and Hart is one of the hardest-nose wing defenders and rebounders in the NBA.
Over time, scheme and aggressive wing defenders should give the Knicks a high floor as a unit. Plus, Robinson is expected to return from offseason ankle surgery in the next month or two and should provide a defensive boost even if he comes off the bench.
One bet to avoid: Knicks to win the Atlantic Division (+340)
Yes, the Knicks should improve as the season progresses. But will they improve enough to make up games on a Celtics team that is already dominant and has a multiple-game lead on the Knicks even before getting a single game from All-Star big man Kristaps Porzingis? That seems unlikely, relative to their odds, so I don’t find value in the Knicks to win the Atlantic Division (available on ESPN BET at +340, behind the odds-on favorite Celtics (-400).
One bet to make: Knicks to win more than 52.5 games (-115)
The Knicks are only two games over .500, but they already have a strong scoring margin of +5.8 PPG that has been steadily rising. Margin is often a better indicator of team caliber than record. Over the past two NBA seasons, only four teams have finished the season with scoring margins better than +5.8. Those teams averaged 58.5 wins, with all four winning at least 56 games. So, I do find value in this bet.
Injuries hampering the Suns … again
The Suns began the season on fire, winning eight of their first nine games to sit atop the Pacific Division. But in that ninth game they lost Durant to a calf strain, and he hasn’t played since. Without Durant, the Suns have lost five of their past six games with a loss margin of 12.2 PPG.
The Suns’ three superstars have an unfortunate injury history that suggests their struggles without Durant might not be a short-term issue. Despite playing 75 games last season, Durant has averaged 26.5 missed games over his last four seasons without even factoring in that he missed the 2019-20 season in its entirety recovering from injury. Booker has averaged 19 missed games in the last three seasons, while Beal has averaged 34.3 missed games during that span.
Three bets to avoid: Suns to win the Pacific Division (+225), to win the West (+700), to win the championship (+1600)
There is just too much uncertainty surrounding availability, even before we get to unanswered questions from last season about whether a perimeter-based Big Three — with all three being score-first players — can win in the playoffs.
One bet to make: Suns to win fewer than 49.5 games (-115)
The Suns have a scoring margin of -1.5 PPG. During the past three seasons, only two teams with a negative scoring margin have even finished over .500, and none with more than 46 wins. Last season, with Durant playing his most games since the 2018-19 season, the Suns still won “only” 49 games. They may not hit that mark this season.
Bonus bet: Suns to participate in the Western Conference play-in tournament (+185)
If the season ended today, the Suns would just miss the tournament as the sixth seed. However, sorted by scoring margin, the Suns would just miss the tournament on the other side in the 11th slot. The West is deep, and the Pacific Division is the most competitive division in the NBA, with all five of their teams currently above .500. This could easily push the Suns, who just missed the play-in last season as the sixth seed, down into the play-in mix this time around.
