The Hornets (4-7) are back home on Saturday to host the visiting Bucks (4-8). Charlotte will be looking to bounce back from a 114-89 beatdown at the hands of the Magic in their NBA Cup matchup earlier in the week.
A visiting Milwaukee team on the other hand will be looking to extend a small winning streak of to a third game after taking down the Raptors and Pistons earlier in the week. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company are at only a 27-win pace for this season, well behind the 49 wins that earned the team the third seed in the Eastern Conference last season, so they will surely be engaged as they try to claw their way back to their winning ways.
Both teams currently sit just outside of play-in spots in the Eastern Conference standings, so this early season matchup could have important implications for the future if the race remains as close as it is so far.
Here are my picks for tonight’s game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Star ratings:
1 Star – Not very confident
2 Star – A little confident
3 Star – Fairly confident
4 Star – Very confident
5 Star – Should be a lock to happen
Spread: Bucks -3.5
3-star play on the Bucks (-3.5): Milwaukee swept the four matchups last season against Charlotte with an average margin of victory of 31.75. Hornets star LaMelo Ball did only play in the first of those matchups though, chipping in a 37/5/5 line in the defeat.
This season, the teams are a bit more evenly matched, especially amidst a fair bit of injuries on both sides. Charlotte will once again be missing the likes of centers Mark Williams and Nick Richards, while Milwaukee will be missing key veterans Khris Middleton and Damian Lillard.
With key sources of scoring missing for Milwaukee, Charlotte will be able to key even further on the two-time MVP Antetokounmpo. Whether or not Miles Bridges (Questionable – Knee Bone Bruise) is able to suit up could be a pivotal element to deciding the matchup.
Ultimately, the advantage the Bucks bring in the paint tonight makes them the preference for this line, though this should be a much closer matchup than any last season.
Over/Under: 216.5
2-star play on the under: Both of these teams are middle of the pack in defensive rating, while the middling Bucks offense has outperformed Charlotte’s bottom-five offensive rating thus far. The pace rating for the teams are both relatively middle of the pack as well.
Charlotte has not played since Tuesday, and Milwaukee only has one less day of rest since their Wednesday night matchup. Fresh legs on both teams should provide ample opportunity for a more engaged defensive effort on both sides.
The line is fair, but wiith the missing key players on both sides, the average total of last season’s matchups being 212.75, and Charlotte shooting a frighteningly low amount of free throws per game, leaning the under feels a bit more reliable here.
My picks this season:
ATS: 5-2 (71.4%)
O/U: 3-4 (42.9%)
Overall: 8-6 (57.1%)
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