We’ve entered the long, winding offseason of rumors, negotiations and posturing that is MLB free agency — a process that ran deep into spring training last year before the remaining big-name players finally signed.
Money will be spent — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects about $3.6 billion in guarantees to be handed out this offseason, compared with just over $3 billion last offseason — but, as history has shown us, it won’t all be wisely spent. That’s just the nature and risk of free agency; even the top free agents aren’t guaranteed to produce instant value. Consider what happened with the top 10 free agents of the previous three years in their first season after signing (not including any players coming over from Japan):
2021-22 offseason
Free agent year combined WAR: 53.2
First season after signing combined WAR: 37.9
2022-23 offseason
Free agent year combined WAR: 52.5
First season after signing combined WAR: 28.4
2023-24 offseason
Free agent year combined WAR: 44.3
First season after signing combined WAR: 25.4
Last year was disastrous despite Shohei Ohtani (9.2 WAR) and Matt Chapman (7.1) being outstanding. Pitchers Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Sonny Gray and Lucas Giolito declined from 20.9 combined Baseball-Reference WAR in 2023 to just 2.7 WAR in 2024 — and 2.1 of that was from Snell, one of those players who signed late. In fact, Snell had a big enough second half to prompt him to exercise his opt-out clause and become a free agent once again.
Let’s dig into some of the subplots surrounding the 2024-25 free agent class with a special edition of an old favorite: free agent superlatives.
