Hilo
Rest Of Tonight: Showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Thursday: Showers. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to 60 to 65 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Kona
Rest Of Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Water
Rest Of Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Windy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 82. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Thursday Night: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Koala
Rest Of Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
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Thursday: Windy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 82. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Thursday Night: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Rest Of Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph.
Puna
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Rest Of Tonight: Showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Thursday: Showers. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to 60 to 65 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Waikoloa
Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 30 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph becoming 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph.
Synopsis
Windy trade winds will persist into the weekend with bands of moisture periodically moving through the state. Showers will be most active over windward and mauka exposures with some leeward showers as well. A slot of drier air should move in on Friday, which could bring critical fire weather conditions on Friday. A broad band of moisture is expected on Saturday with showery conditions expected especially over windward and mauka areas.
Discussion
A strong 1037 mb high far north of the state will produce windy trade winds through the weekend. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island and will likely remain windy through Saturday as a strong high remains anchored far north-north east of the state.
Latest satellite and radar imagery shows drier conditions than this morning, but another band of moisture will be moving into the state tonight. Showers should once again be on the increase, especially over windward Big Island and Maui, where a line of showery cumulus clouds are seen upstream of the state.
Starting Friday, a drier air mass should move into the state which should decrease shower coverage. With windy and drier conditions, critical fire weather conditions will be possible so please see the FIRE WEATHER section below for more details.
On Saturday, the remnants of an old frontal boundary will move in with the windy trades and will produce showery weather across the state with the greatest shower coverage expected over windward and mountain areas. An upper level trough moving in on Saturday should help enhance shower activity with some brief downpours also possible over leeward areas. With the added instability, heavier showers are expected over windward and mountain areas, which could increasing flooding concerns. At this time, the greatest combination of moisture and instability looks to be over windward Big Island and windward Maui on Saturday. A drier air mass should move in on Sunday, which should decrease shower coverage.
By early next week, a large low pressure will develop far north of the state and the trade winds should decrease to moderate speeds around Tuesday of next week. This could be short-lived though as a cold front approaches the state towards the middle of next week.
Aviation
Increasingly strong ENE trade winds will periodically deliver showery low cloud clusters that will focus over windward areas. Showers will also spread leeward at times, wetting some leeward runways, including PHNL. Periods of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA can be anticipated, and AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will be updated as conditions warrant. AIRMET Tango for moderate low- level turbulence over and downwind of the mountains will remain posted until further notice.
Marine
A strong high pressure system will build in north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next several days. Expect strong and gusty trade winds through tonight, increasing further Thursday into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters through Wednesday night due to the strong trades and corresponding high seas. A Gale Watch has been issued for Thursday through Friday for the windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island, in anticipation of even stronger wind speeds there, while the SCA remains posted for all remaining coastal waters through Friday.
A large, long-period northwest (320-330) swell peaked a few hours ago and has begun to slowly trend down. Surf has responded and continues to run at high-end advisory levels this afternoon along exposed north and west facing shores. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, as well as north facing shores of Maui. Surf heights will slowly decrease tonight through Thursday, likely falling below advisory thresholds by Thursday night.
Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores will gradually become more elevated from Thursday onward, as the trade winds strengthen further. Surf heights along east facing shores is expected to build to advisory levels Thursday into Friday, and then hold into the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores remains small through the period, except for a small bump later today.
Peak monthly tides are forecast from Nov 14th to 18th. These high tides will combine with elevated seas due to strong trades and slowly fading northwest/north swells to exacerbate coastal inundation impacts, particularly for vulnerable locations during early morning high tides. Current water levels are not running as high above predictions as they have been, so inundation impacts do not appear likely until Friday.
Fire weather
With the windy trade winds in place through Saturday, the wind speeds will be at or near Red Flag thresholds, but the limiting factor is the relative humidity. With bands of moisture moving through Thursday, humidities should not be low enough to reach Red Flag Warning through Thursday. A slot of drier air moving in on Friday could bring Red Flag conditions during the day on Friday. Due to this possibility, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all leeward areas of all islands during the day Friday. Note, the winds do not look nearly as strong and humidities do not look as dry as the historical Aug 8th event. Nonetheless, critical fire weather conditions will still be possible on Friday. A broad band of moisture will move in on Saturday, which should decrease any fire weather concerns over the weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for Niihau, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Waianae Mountains, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Lanai Mauka, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Kohala, Big Island Interior.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai North, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
