The survey on the votes on November 24th, 2024 was carried out on behalf of SRG SSR by the research institute GFS Bern between October 28th and November 7th, 2024. The average survey day is November 1st. In total, the answers from 10,358 voters were taken into account for the evaluation.
Telephone survey
1,207 eligible voters residing in Switzerland were interviewed by telephone. The interviews were conducted via landline and cell phone. This sample is weighted according to linguistic region and is representative of Swiss voters. The statistical error is ± 2.8 percentage points.
With 1,207 respondents and a result of 50 percent, the effective value is between 47.2 and 52.8 percent with a 95 percent probability. Smaller deviations are more likely, larger ones less likely.
Online survey
In addition, people were surveyed online. The participants were recruited via the SRG web portals. After the data had been cleaned and checked, the information from 9,151 eligible voters could be used for the analysis.
Since the participants in the survey recruit themselves (so-called opt-in procedure), the composition of the sample is not representative of the population. For example, typically more men than women take part in political surveys.
However, this data is approximated to the real conditions of those entitled to vote using weighting. Spatial (place of residence), socio-demographic (age or gender) and political weighting factors are used. This weighting optimizes the representativeness of the sample. The aim is to increase the sample size in French- and Italian-speaking Switzerland.
Surveys are snapshots
The research institute GFS Bern conducted two surveys on the November 24th vote. The authors of the study emphasize that the results are not an anticipated voting result, but rather a snapshot at the time of the survey. However, the results could be interpreted as trends in opinion formation before the final mobilization.
You can find the entire report on the SRG survey on the GFS Bern website.
