After a first term marked by the exit from the Paris climate agreement, Donald Trump returns to the White House. It plans massive investments in the exploitation of fossil fuels and the lifting of numerous regulations with the aim of disengaging the United States from global climate diplomacy.
“Drill, baby, drill.” Donald Trump wants to “drill at all costs”. This Wednesday, November 6, the Republican candidate was declared the winner of the United States presidential election. A victory which marks the return of climate skepticism to the White House, while the country is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, and the first historical polluter since the start of the industrial era.
Donald Trump has made no shortage of outrageous remarks about the environment. He considers that climate change is a “scam”, a “hoax” or even a “concept invented by the Chinese to prevent American industry from being competitive”.
“You know what the biggest problem with global warming is? Experts talk about it all the time: the oceans will rise in 500 years, by a few millimeters,” he said again this Saturday during a meeting in Wisconsin, adding:
“But who cares?”
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Exit (again) from the Paris climate agreement
Donald Trump's first term, between 2017 and 2021, speaks for itself. One of the first steps he took was to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement, which among other things aims to keep the increase in global temperature “well below” 2°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels and continue efforts to limit this increase to 1.5°C. And he promised to do it again, after the cancellation of this decision by his successor Joe Biden.
Climate, air and water quality, fossil fuels… The Republican had also unraveled American environmental regulations by canceling more than 125 texts, according to a count by the Columbia Business School.
According to an analysis by the Lancet Commission on Public Policy and Health of the Trump Era, the Trump administration's environmental policies led to “more than 22,000 additional deaths in 2019 alone,” largely due to environmental pollution. worsening air pollution.
“Drill, baby, drill”
“We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia or Russia,” Donald Trump said in his victory speech on Wednesday, referring to oil and gas. .
He had promised: in the event of re-election, the United States will “drill like crazy”, with the slogan “drill, baby, drill (fore, baby, drill)” regularly chanted by his supporters during his various meetings countryside. It intends to massively relaunch gas and oil production, while continuing to burn coal, fossil fuels whose exploitation is responsible for climate change.
Donald Trump plans to open the Alaskan Arctic to oil drilling and end the pause on liquefied natural gas exports in order to “halve the cost of energy in the first 12 months of his entry into office”.
The Republican is also in favor of hydraulic fracturing, a technique used in particular for the extraction of shale gas by the oil and gas industry. This process is singled out for ecological risks such as the possible contamination of drinking water or the release of large quantities of methane.
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In his program, he denounced the “crippling restrictions on American energy production.” Last May, American media revealed that the Republican candidate had promised oil companies to cancel Joe Biden's environmental regulations and to only pass “pro-business” and “anti-regulation” laws… in exchange for 'a billion dollars from them for his campaign.
According to Reuters, Donald Trump has raised tens of millions of dollars from Texan businessmen in the oil sector. Furthermore, according to Politico, the lobby of this industry has already drafted legislation, which only requires the signature of Donald Trump once officially elected.
Dismantle everything to “find very cheap energy”
Donald Trump also promised to “put an end to Kamala Harris's Green New Deal”, saying that his predecessor's environmental policies are nothing more than a “massive increase in taxes on everything”. In his program, the words “climate”, “environment” or even “ecology” do not appear.
The 78-year-old tycoon nevertheless speaks of abolishing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), whose mission is to “protect human health and safeguard natural elements – air, water and land – essential to life” and the American Oceanic and Atmospheric Observing Agency (NOAA), an agency of global importance in the study of climate change, which provides information in particular on extreme events in the United States such as hurricanes.
Donald Trump also plans to revisit the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), an important measure which aims in particular at massive investments in domestic energy production by promoting clean energy and green industries. According to the Climate Power organization, the IRA has created 300,000 jobs and led to more than $300 billion in investments.
“We are going to put thousands of Americans to work to build the power plants, pipelines, networks, ports, refineries and export terminals of tomorrow. We are going to return to very cheap energy,” declared Donald Trump in comments reported by the think tank Terra Nova.
Another promise for example: the future 47th President of the United States wants to cancel subsidies for the production of renewable energies or electric cars.
These plans can take time to implement and can be fought in court or at local authority level. However, Donald Trump's policy will be all the easier to carry out as the Senate has come under the control of his camp, the Republicans.
The impact on global climate diplomacy
According to calculations by the specialist media Carbon Brief, Donald Trump's return to power will cause 4 billion additional tonnes of CO2 by 2030 compared to the Democrats, i.e. the annual emissions of Europe and Japan. The United States would then move further than ever from the objective of +1.5°C of warming by this horizon.
One thing is certain, this victory already marks the disengagement of the United States from global climate diplomacy. Without even waiting for the inauguration in January, this election weakens the voice of American negotiators at COP29, which opens on November 11. However, the commitment of rich countries like the United States will be decisive for increasing financial aid to vulnerable countries, at the heart of discussions this year.
Many countries risk no longer wanting to commit if the largest historical polluter enters and leaves international climate agreements whenever it sees fit. Even more so at a time when the effectiveness of these processes is in doubt and climate skepticism is gaining ground in certain countries around the world.
“The United States is going to become a dangerous place for scientists and intellectuals,” adds a climatologist from the University of Pennsylvania to The Guardian.
Even the boss of TotalEnergies urged Donald Trump not to call into question the United States' commitments on climate, fearing a deleterious effect on the image of the oil industry. Patrick Pouyanné said this Monday that he preferred a “strict” EPA (American Environmental Protection Agency), rather than a regulatory environment that would resemble “the Wild West”.
According to the US Climate Change Research Agenda released in 2023, over the previous five years, the United States suffered a climate catastrophe every three weeks, compared to one every four months in the 1980s.
