In Georgia and North Carolina – states that Donald Trump all but has to win – the former president is doing even better in the traditional rural areas than he did in 2020. Kamala Harris is matching Joe Biden’s totals in the urban and suburban counties, but so far she has not made a marked improvement.
While these vote margins could shift, narrow Trump victories in Georgia and North Carolina would mean all eyes once again turn to the Democratic “Blue Wall” states along the Great Lakes. The scenario where Harris delivers a knock-out punch on election night would fail to materialise.
At that point, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania become her best – perhaps only – path to the White House. And in Pennsylvania, the final results might not be known for days.
We’ve also got another batch of exit poll data, shedding light on the divide between men and women in this election.
Not surprisingly, a majority of women are backing Kamala Harris, while men are giving their support to Donald Trump.
What is a bit surprising, at least according to these findings, is that the 54% of women voting for Harris doesn’t match the 57% that backed Joe Biden in 2020.
