A few hours before polling stations close in the United States, Republican candidate Donald Trump is the favorite to become the next American president, according to betting sites.
Who will be the next tenant of the White House? A few hours before the polls close, the latest polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck. This is one of the reasons why we will probably not know the winner of the election right away.
On betting sites, where everyone can bet on a victory and thus inflate the odds, it is the Republican candidate who is given the favorite. According to RealClearPolitics, which compiles odds from several betting companies, the Republican candidate has a 59.7% chance of returning to his post in the White House. Conversely, Kamala Harris would only have a 38.9% chance of succeeding Joe Biden, according to this same institute. In detail, the Republican candidate would narrowly win in most key states, such as Pennsylvania or Georgia.
Donald Trump in the lead on all betting platforms
The gap between the two contenders has widened in recent days. Until about a month ago, it was Kamala Harris who was favored by prognosticators. Throughout the month of September, the Democratic candidate had between a 50 and 53% chance of becoming president, according to bookmakers.
The gaps are nevertheless much tighter than they were when Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate. Until his withdrawal at the end of July, Donald Trump was widely favored by bettors, with more than 60% chance of becoming President of the United States again.
On other prediction platforms, Donald Trump is given the favorite in this final sprint for the American presidency. On PredictIt, an online market based in New Zealand and managed by the University of Wellington, the former president is given the winner by a very narrow margin. On Kalshi, which claims to be “the first legal and regulated prediction market in the United States”, it is also the Republican who is the favorite for the presidency, with a 59% chance of winning, according to the latest estimates. A gap which has continued to grow in recent days since the two candidates were from the same another month ago.
Finally, on Polymarket, Donald Trump is widely predicted to be the winner with a probability of 63%, compared to 37% for his Democratic opponent. On this platform, bookmakers imagine Kamala Harris winning the most votes (at 73%) but still losing, due to defeats in the swing states, like Pennsylvania. Figures to be taken with great caution. In mid-October, the Wall Street Journal explained that the former president's rating on this platform could have been “manipulated”, the owner of Polymarket being a loyal supporter of the Republican candidate.
At the end of October, the New York Times reported that a Frenchman had bet $28 million on Donald Trump's victory. Answer in the coming days to find out if he will hit the jackpot.
