The American news website The Daily Beast said that there are five reasons to believe that Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris will taste the bitterness of defeat in the US presidential elections that began on Tuesday.
The site’s correspondent, Harry Lambert, based the reasons he cited in his report on publicly available data, which we summarize below:
- 1- Look outside the swing states
On Saturday night, a “shocking” poll – conducted by respected specialist institutions in Iowa – indicated that Harris would win by 3 percentage points of the state’s votes, which Trump had previously won over his opponent, current President Joe Biden, in 2011.
According to the Daily Beast report, this shift is not limited to Iowa, but is also evident in the state of Kansas, where another opinion poll conducted recently by the Kansas Speaks Center showed that Harris’ performance is much better than Biden’s performance in the 2020 elections, who lagged by nearly 15 percentage points then over Trump.
- 2- It is the women who will win
If Harris wins, it will be women who lead her to victory. She leads by 5 points among women in the Kansas Speaks poll, while Trump leads by 15 points among men.
Anne Selzer, the architect of the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, points to a wave of women’s support in Iowa for the Democratic Party, which supports women’s right to abortion.
- 3- Trump’s gains are greater in Democratic states
Trump appears to have made some gains since 2020, particularly among non-white, younger voters. But these gains may not be as surprising as they seemed earlier in the campaign.
There is evidence cited by YouGov pollsters that black support for the Democratic Party is still holding up relatively well. They favor Democrats by about 70 points, down from 82 points in 2020, but not by as much as national polls have shown in the past two weeks.
Trump’s gains appear to be concentrated in large Democratic states with more diverse (and younger) populations, such as New York and California. As for his gains in the states of New Mexico and Virginia, which have solid Democratic majorities, they will not be enough to turn them in favor of the Republicans.
There is Arizona, where Trump appears to be performing about 3 points better than in 2020.
- 4- Opinion polls exaggerate the numbers in favor of Trump, as happened in 2020
There are many polls showing close support for both candidates Harris and Trump this year, according to polling analyst Nate Silver. But pollsters appear to be manipulating the data to appear close.
This practice is perhaps most severe in the states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, but less severe in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.
The Daily Beast asks: For whose benefit are pollsters manipulating the results? The special correspondent of the American website, Lambert, answers that exaggerating the change in numbers is in Trump’s interest, as happened in 2020.
- 5- The electoral race for Congress is colored blue, not red
In contrast to the 2020 election, voters this time favor Democrats over Republicans to win the House of Representatives, but by a small margin. Analysts tend to tilt the race for Congress in their favor in closely matched swing districts.
