US election 2024: “Whoever wins Pennsylvania is president”

Trump has caught up in the polls for the US election – but the result is still completely open, says election expert Jörg Schönenborn. But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: whoever wins Pennsylvania will probably win the election.

tagesschau24: Let’s start with a nationwide look. What are the current numbers for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? Who is ahead?

Jörg Schönenborn: Basically, you can only make one reliable statement: Donald Trump has made up ground in the last few weeks – and the rest is really very short and wafer-thin. Surveys in the USA are always average at the national level anyway, because in the end 50 states and the capital decide individually.

But you can see from the development of Kamala Harris’ poll numbers: after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, she initially wins and then remains stable at a high level. While Trump is catching up little by little, especially throughout October.

In the average of FiveThirtyEight – which is the partner of the broadcaster ABC – Harris has a poll rating of 47.9 and Trump has a poll rating of 47.0. But the experience of the presidential elections in recent years shows that this can easily be three points more or less. That means, in principle, both are possible.

And such a near-tie always means a slight advantage for Trump. The electoral system favors voters in the more rural, Republican states. So: If Trump comes out on top, then the matter is relatively clear. But even if he falls short of Harris in the federal vote, he could still become president.

“Pennsylvania seems to be the most controversial state”

tagesschau24: The swing states, where the election campaign is particularly intense, are of course the focus. What does it look like there?

Schönenborn: It’s a crazy development in the USA. The red states have become redder, the blue states have become bluer. And this time it’s really just that the entire American public is looking at seven states. These are the seven states that did not have a clear result on election night last time.

The blue states, which are considered to be democratic, have a good 220 electoral votes. Trump with the red states, especially in the middle of the country down to Texas, has almost 220. And then it depends on the seven remaining states.

Those where the polls are leaning more towards Donald Trump are Arizona and Nevada, as well as Georgia and North Carolina. With these states he would have to have 270 electoral votes – so he wouldn’t have quite made it.

And then there are three crucial states in the Midwest that are also called the “Blue Wall.” Things are looking relatively good for Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan. And then we see that in the end, Pennsylvania seems to be the most controversial state this time. If it all happens like this, then you can say: Whoever wins Pennsylvania will ultimately also be president.

“The Democratic electorate is a little more female”

tagesschau24: Women appear to play an important role in this election. Why is this the case and what can we expect?

Schönenborn: We have a candidate for the second time. For some voters that makes no difference at all – for some it makes a difference. Trump has had a very male-dominated electorate since he took office. Even the last time he didn’t become president, he didn’t have the most votes, but he still had a clear lead among men.

For women it was already Joe Biden back then. And now we are seeing that the Democratic electorate is becoming a little more female. But especially among younger people there is what Americans call the “gender gap”: This is where things split – young women are very much on Kamala Harris’s side.

But young men, often with an immigrant background, are correspondingly more on the Republican side. There are many Hispanics among them, who are often a bit more conservative. So this line-up of “woman against man” can give the Democrats a boost and a lot of votes in the female camp. But it’s not necessarily the case that they don’t have something to lose with men too.

“Discontent, especially in economic questions”

tagesschau24: Let’s look at the issues that were important in the election campaign. Which are these?

Schönenborn: As it always used to be said: “It’s the economy, stupid.” I was in the USA last week and noticed how important price increases and the cost of living are for the people I spoke to there. And if we look at a relatively new survey with figures from last week – asking whether the country is developing in the right or the wrong direction – then we see: When it comes to the economy, 60 percent say the country is developing the wrong direction, when it comes to the cost of living it is 70 percent.

When it comes to foreign policy, things are a little more balanced: 56 percent think the country is developing in the wrong direction. Immigration is a strong Republican issue, with 65 percent voting here. The two most negatively rated topics are those that Trump is very clearly campaigning on.

Then there are Harris’ themes. These are primarily domestic political issues. There’s also the vote: Overall, it’s going in the wrong direction. So dissatisfaction, especially with economic issues, with jobs, with housing costs, with the cost of living, will very likely decide this election.

Would Trump accept defeat?

tagesschau24: What seems to be emerging is that if Trump loses, things could get really difficult – we remember January 6th. Is it possible to estimate whether the Republicans could cope with a defeat?

Schönenborn: Trump said this week that it was a mistake to leave the White House four years ago. I was at a campaign rally with Trump where I noticed that the slogan “Never surrender” was on posters and T-shirts were being sold with it.

We will definitely have this question. There is also a survey from last week asking: How do you think Harris or Trump will accept the election defeat?

In the case of Harris, three quarters believe it – one quarter doesn’t believe it. And with Trump it’s the other way around. 74 percent believe he will not accept an election defeat. And he claimed victory on election day four years ago, which of course he didn’t win afterwards.

The question of how the results are counted and what the results look like is one thing. The question of whether those involved accept this, whether there will be a peaceful transfer of power – there is in any case a new person in the White House – is of course particularly important after the events of four years ago.

“The expectation is that the Senate will be Republican”

tagesschau24: This election also decides the two chambers of parliament. The Republicans dominate in the House of Representatives and the Democrats in the Senate, but only just. Who do you see at the top of the polls?

Schönenborn: In the Senate, the Democrats’ chances of retaining the majority are very, very slim. This simply has to do with coincidence, where senators have withdrawn and new elections are coming up. A third of the Senate is always re-elected. Theoretically, there is a chance that the Democrats will retain the majority. But then there would really have to be quite unexpected results in their favor. The general expectation is that the Senate will become Republican.

The House of Representatives, with over 430 seats, all of which are newly elected, is similar to the presidency: a neck-and-neck race. So we can certainly assume that it’s not just the presidential question that will be exciting on Wednesday night.

The interview was conducted by Mikhail Paweletz, tagesschau24. The interview was slightly edited for the written version.