IIt will affect France, that’s a certainty. Hurricane Kirk will reach France this Monday, October 7. Gironde and Bordeaux should be the first affected. But the hurricane, which is currently moving in the Atlantic, should have weakened. In the North Atlantic, the surface water temperature is lower than in the tropics (which will reduce the power of the hurricane) and it will be carried away by the altitude currents of this part of the hemisphere. .
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As a result, Kirk will lose its tropical characteristics. If it will therefore only be a most usual autumn storm, that will not prevent it from causing some turbulence in France. The impact is expected to be strongest overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, with heavy rainfall. Currently, Météo-France anticipates wind gusts of up to 95 km/h for Wednesday evening in Charente-Maritime. They will be 60 to 70 km/h inland. The weather channel mentions peaks at around 110 km/h from Charente to the Ardennes and Île-de-France and up to 90 km/h from the southwest to the northeast of the country. It is based on another weather model, the American GFS, which, in 2024, has tended to be more reliable than in recent years.
The precipitation, which will spare the south of France for a while, should still cover the entire country by the night of Wednesday to Thursday, due to the significant trailing sky which will follow the passage of the remains of Kirk, according to ECMWF, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. A situation which should calm down at the end of the day. The hurricane should then cross the French borders to reach Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Germany, starting Thursday. But then it will already be nothing more than a simple depression.
Trees more easily uprooted
At a time when the trees are still heavy, due to their leaves not yet falling with autumn and winter, caution is required. They are in fact likely to be more easily uprooted, because of better wind resistance. Enough to bring back memories of Storm Boris which hit Central Europe in September or, more recently, Hurricane Helene in Florida.
