Return of the Northern Lights to Toulouse: are we likely to see them?

“Come on, where are you hiding? », says a man impatiently behind his camera placed on a tripod. Above Pech-Davidat the foot of the Observatory Toulousethere were many of them, Monday June 3, 2024, to enjoy the sunset and above all: to watch for the eventual return of the Northern Lights.

But are we really likely to see any? ” Yes ! Several factors are favorable,” responds Benjamin Peter, space news officer at the Cité de l’Espace in Toulouse. “Every 11 years, we have a cycle of strong solar activity. And 2024-2025 corresponds to a peak.”

The return of the phenomenon causing the Northern Lights

And for good reason. The sun turned at the end of May, giving the opportunity for the sunspot which caused the northern lights of May 10 in the Pink City and throughout France to resurface. “And right in front of us!” », Says the Toulouse expert.

Mercury then ejects material which, by solar wind, takes about two days to reach Earth. The latest solar storm was triggered on June 1. When it arrived, it was moved by the solar magnetic field that protects the Earth, but left in its path remnants of particles forming the northern lights.

“This sunspot can, therefore, still illuminate our nights,” adds Benjamin Peter.

A less strong phenomenon than in May

Clear skies, past solar storm, faint moon, last crescent… The elements are well and truly united for the June 3 and 4, 2024. But is their strength enough to make the Northern Lights as visible as in May?

The intensity of the geomagnetic storm of May 10 was level 5 out of 5. While the one that dates from June 1 is more of level 1 or 2. “At our latitudes, the probability of seeing the northern lights is less. Northern Europe is more concerned,” admits the space news professional.

In Toulouse, “if there’s something to see, it’s tonight”

However, those who monitor the chances of appreciating this exceptional phenomenon, generally observed at the poles, affirm:

If there’s anything to see, it’s tonight. We will have a peak between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m.

This estimate is based on the KP index, measuring on a scale of 0 to 9 the probability of seeing the Northern Lights. Tuesday June 4, this index reached the figure of 5while on Monday, it was more around 3, compared to 7 on the night of May 10.

A clue and the weather conditions to watch for

It is therefore necessary to check, via the Space Weather Live websitedepending on the time and location, the KP level. The privileged amount starts at 7. And then also: hope that the ideal situation is there to see them.

Because if the index is indeed high this Tuesday in Toulouse, the temporality will not allow us to offer a beautiful black sky, without clouds, sinceit won’t be dark yet. Essential condition for seeing the Northern Lights.

A cycle that repeats itself

But hope is not lost in the Pink City. Due to the high activity of the sun this year, the sunspot should return in about twenty days. Again. But you still need to know what to expect…

“The very pink sky in the photos does not correspond to what the human eye sees, because cameras and phones capture more light. We rather see blue-green streaks“, recalls Benjamin Peter, from the Cité de l’Espace. In your eyes, then.

Follow all the news from your favorite cities and media by subscribing to Mon -.