We were talking about it a few weeks ago: the asteroid Apophis is due to brush past Earth in 2029. NASA astronomers, who were particularly confident, thought that a change in trajectory that could redirect Apophis towards us was unlikely. But today, a new study published in the The Planetary Science Journal indicates that there is a real (albeit small) possibility that the immense rock (325 m in diameter and weighing some 40 million tonnes) will end up on our land in 2029.
A modified trajectory in the event of an impact with smaller asteroids
The possibility of such a scenario occurring is estimated at one in a billion and requires a particular set of circumstances. Nevertheless, the possibility of an impact cannot be completely ruled out before 2027. As a reminder, the asteroid Apophis has been monitored by NASA and space specialists since 2004. While its trajectory is expected to pass particularly close to Earth, it has never been considered dangerous for the planet. Indeed, even if the wandering object were to hit the Earth, the impact would not be powerful enough to destroy all forms of civilization, contrary to common beliefs. In the worst case, an impact from Apophis could, for example, wipe a large city off the map, which is frightening enough in itself.
Apophis is expected to pass Earth on April 13, 2029, but its trajectory could change between now and then. According to study author Paul Wiegert, Apophis could actually hit several small asteroids along the way. With one of them being larger than 3.3 meters in diameter, the impact could redirect Apophis onto another trajectory that could potentially lead to Earth.
If Apophis hits a 60 cm asteroid, its trajectory could also be redirected towards our planet, but for a later impact (the study speaks of 2036 or 2068). However, for these impacts to redirect the asteroid towards us, they would have to take place at a very specific location in space and the probability of such a phenomenon occurring is calculated at one in a million.
So what can we do in the meantime? Since Apophis won’t be visible with telescopes until 2027, we’ll have to wait before we know for sure. Paul Wiegert remains optimistic, however: in 2027, simple and direct observations of the asteroid will be enough to safely end the risk of impact.
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