The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has once again raised its forecasts for the expansion of nuclear production capacity, increasingly seen as a lever for decarbonization, according to a press release published on Monday.
“The global momentum for nuclear energy continues apace”said the UN body’s Director General, Rafael Grossi, at the opening of the UN body’s general conference in Vienna. The atom is now “increasingly recognized as a clean and safe source of energy” alongside renewables in the face of the challenge of climate change, he said.
“Growing interest”
The official also mentioned “growing interest” for small modular reactor (SMR) technology, which aims to develop the combined production of electricity, heat and/or hydrogen, mainly for industrial sites that consume a lot of fossil fuels. In the most favourable scenario for nuclear power, the IAEA predicts more than doubling of installed capacity, which would climb to 950 gigawatts in 2050 compared to 371 GW at the end of 2023 with 413 reactors in operation. It had previously counted on 890 GW.
In the least optimistic case, the organization is counting on 514 gigawatts. “We have 31 countries that are exploiting nuclear energy today, and nearly 30 that are embarking on this path, three of which are in advanced stages of construction and will be producing electricity in the coming years.” (Turkey, Bangladesh and Egypt), Henri Paillere, director of economic studies at the IAEA, explained to the press.
9.2% of the world’s electricity
Supporters of nuclear power point out that it is a source of energy that emits very little CO2 and is controllable, meaning that it can be mobilised according to needs, unlike wind or solar. But because of the cost and risks, some countries remain resolutely against it or are hesitant to take the plunge.
This energy provides 9.2% of the world’s electricity, according to figures from 2023, far from the dominant coal. The IAEA had raised its projections in 2021 for the first time since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, following a powerful earthquake and a gigantic tsunami in northeastern Japan. The accident had dealt a severe blow to the sector before returning to favor in the EU. Nuclear power, which allows it to free itself from Russian gas, is also benefiting from the break with Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
