Iran attacked Israel with missiles. So far, Iran has been rather cautious towards Israel, despite the assassination of Hamas leader Haniya, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and the Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon. The Islamic scholar Reinhard Schulze assesses the current developments in the Middle East in the program “10 vor 10”.
Reinhard Schulze
Islamic scholar
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The Islamic scholar Reinhard Schulze studied Oriental and Islamic Studies, Romance Studies and Linguistics at the University of Bonn from 1974 to 1981. From 1987 to 1992 he worked as a professor of Oriental Philology at the Ruhr University in Bochum, and between 1992 and 1995 as a professor of Islamic studies and Arabic studies at the University of Bamberg. From 1995 until his retirement in 2018, he was a full professor of Islamic Studies and Modern Oriental Philology at the University of Bern. Schulz’s academic focus is on researching social change in the context of the Islamic world.
SRF News: Iran’s President Massoud Peseschkian has spoken out: That was only a “fraction of our capabilities”. How do you assess the tone towards Israel?
Reinhard Schulze: That’s interesting because Peseschkian makes it clear that it was the Iranian Revolutionary Guards who launched the attack and not the Iranian army. That means: There is another possibility of escalation, because at the moment there is still a conflict between the Revolutionary Guards and Israel. So there could still be a conflict between Iran and Israel. Iran’s President Peseschkian is making it clear that Iran still has things up its sleeve that Israel doesn’t yet know anything about.
The escalation cannot be stopped, but it can be controlled.
So was Iran under pressure to react now?
Iran had to act because its allies could turn their backs on Iran for not helping them. On the other hand, Iran also wants to show that it is not waging war in a way that endangers its own imperial interests or that the Iranian Republic would be endangered by Israeli counterattacks. With the death of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah, the point has now been reached at which the Iranian leadership has dared to enter into a conflict with Israel.
So many sources of conflict have now emerged that we no longer know who has control over them.
Everything is heading towards escalation. Do you see a way to stop this spiral?
The escalation cannot be stopped, but it can be controlled. The USA, Israel and also Iran are trying to exert some kind of control so that this escalation does not result in chaos. But now so many sources of conflict have arisen that we no longer know who has control over them. It could be that something happens in Lebanon that forces Iran to retaliate. Or Israel responds in Iran with an attack on their missile launch bases. This would lead to an escalation, the extent of which cannot be foreseen.
Iranian demonstrators burn an Israeli flag after rocket attacks on the enemy country. (10/1/2024)
Reuters / West Asia News Agency, Majid Asgaripour
A conflagration in the Middle East?
It could grow into a wildfire. At the moment there are still individual sources of fire: Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen. And it could be that there is a larger conflagration in which all the conflicts come together.
It may be that Israel is overstretched because there are too many fronts and actors.
The USA plays an important role. However, the influence appears to be very limited.
It is astonishing what a weak position the USA currently has. They are crucial in supporting Israel, but all they can do right now is try to de-escalate.
Isn’t Israel overestimating itself with so many fronts?
It may be that Israel is overstretched because there are too many fronts – Gaza, Lebanon, Iran – and also actors that Israel can no longer control all of them. For Israel, this could mean finding itself in a conflict situation within the country itself, which was not at all foreseen in the old military planning.
The interview was conducted by Urs Gredig.
