After an increase estimated at 1.2% in 2024, Vaud’s GDP could increase by 1.8% this year then 1.9% in 2026, according to the latest forecasts from the Vaud Economic Commission. However, it notes that this “prospect of recovery” is threatened by the increase in the “degree of uncertainty on a global level”.
In a press release published Thursday, the Vaud Economic Commission indicates that an increase in added value is expected “in a majority of branches” from this year. The strongest growth (more than 2%) is expected for chemicals-pharma, business services, real estate activities and financial services.
The machinery industry, watchmaking as well as public and parapublic services could experience moderate growth (from 0.5% to 2%) in 2025, then stronger in 2026. In construction, strong growth is expected this year, then moderate next year. Trade should show a moderate increase both this year and next year.
Global uncertainties
In the hotel and catering industry, a decline (between -0.5% and -2%) is expected in 2025, which could be followed by stagnation (between -0.5% and +0.5%) in 2026 For transport and communications, a moderate decline is expected in 2025 as in 2026.
According to the Vaud Economic Commission, these forecasts, however, remain dependent on several unknowns, “in particular the evolution of the economic and commercial policies of the major economies and its possible effects on the global economy”.
Among these unknowns, she cites the arrival of Donald Trump to power in the United States, tensions between China and other economies as well as geopolitical risks and the debt of certain countries. The evolution of the franc rate and Switzerland’s relations with the European Union are also uncertainties.
This article was automatically published. Source: ats
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