Launched into the assault on a Giro-Tour de France double, most achieved since Marco Pantani in 1998, Tadej Pogacar is designated by everyone as the number one favorite at the start of Florence this Saturday. The uncertain form of his main rivals, Jonas Vingegaard in the lead, raises fears of a battle perhaps less intense than expected, even if the Slovenian’s preparation has been disrupted by the coronavirus.
Is it a hallucination due to the burning sun of the first days of summer in the Tuscan city? Maybe. Coming to attend Thursday in Florence the presentation of the twenty-two teams of this Tour de France vintage 2024, wrapped in his flag in the colors of Italy, and an old fluorescent pink jersey branded Lampre, Pietro is categorical.
“Forget all your Avengers,” smiles the 38-year-old trader.
The one who managed to slip through the crowd gathered in front of the Palazzo Vecchio to be in the front row of the show has a very clear idea of the outcome of this 2024 Tour. “This year, I have no doubt, I see a final victory for Giulio Ciccone, the yellow jersey will suit him very well.” Released with a funny assurance, the prediction has the merit of making his friends laugh, not really convinced by the idea of seeing the Lidl-Trek climber, darling of the tifosi and among the winners in the applause meter, compete with “the monsters of the peloton”. Or rather the “Fantastic Four” to use the nickname given to the five-star cast of this 111th edition.
A blockbuster, really?
This Saturday, Tadej Pogacar (25 years old), Jonas Vingegaard (27 years old), Primoz Roglic (34 years old) and Remco Evenepoel (24 years old) will be together for the first time at the start of a grand Tour. All accompanied by clients like Carlos Rodriguez, Adam Yates, Matteo Jorgenson, Juan Ayuso, João Almeida and Geraint Thomas.
“And the course is very tempting, with more than 25 kilometers above 2000 meters and four summit finishes,” observes Jérôme Coppel, 13th in the 2011 Tour and consultant for RMC. “On paper, everything was in place to witness an exceptional Tour de France, one of the best in a very, very long time, with a completely crazy duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard. Unfortunately, that may not be the case…” Because the July blockbuster is no longer so sure to reach the heights of suspense initially promised. The fault lies in the giant bowling game that fell on the Tour of the Basque Country at the beginning of April.
Caught in a collective bowl during the fourth stage, Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel all three had to go to the hospital box. If the Slovenian came out rather well, without any major injury, the Belgian suffered fractures to a shoulder blade and a collarbone, while the two-time winner outgoing of the Tour found himself with a loose collarbone, a pulmonary contusion , a pneumothorax and several broken sides.
A year after having disgusted the competition in the last week, to the point of fueling the skepticism of some of the followers at the end of his monumental time in Combloux, here he is in total limbo. At least in appearance. “I come with the ambition to achieve the best possible result overall. Being here is a victory in itself, everything else will be a bonus,” he said on Thursday.
Vingegaard will not be able to hide
“He needs to find his rhythm and confidence again, but the route doesn’t suit him at all. It will be tough from the start, with 3,600m of elevation gain on the first day. It will also be nervous on Sunday with the emblematic San Luca climb. And then on Tuesday we will attack the high mountains directly with the entry into the Alps. In these conditions, Pogacar and UAE are quite capable of killing the Tour by blowing up Vingegaard in the Galibier. It could be over after four stages,” believes Coppel, for whom the Dane must avoid “giving up more than three minutes in Valloire otherwise it will be almost over”. On this playing field conducive to a Slovenian fireworks display, seeing the leader of Visma-Lease a Bike explode in the big widths is however not the scenario preferred by all observers.
“I am firmly convinced that Vingegaard only comes because he is sure of his shot. If he is there, it means that his team has been more than reassured by his data, at least in training, and that She thinks he’s recovered. And then we mustn’t forget that Pogacar comes out of the Giro. Everyone says he won it by walking around every day, but he didn’t save himself either. and has multiplied the solidarity raids. Has he recovered enough to attack straight away? I place him a notch above the competition on this Tour, but I tell myself that we can have a crazy race until then. “on arrival in Nice if Vingegaard manages to limit the damage in the first days”, insists the former rider and team manager, Jérôme Pineau, consultant for RMC.
Covid, a question mark for Pogacar
Backed by a war machine, with Ayuso, Almeida and Yates being compared by many to the Real Madrid Galacticos of the 2000s, Pogacar has embarked on a titanic challenge. That of completing two three-week odysseys, for 42 stages and 6,892 kilometres in total, in order to become the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to win the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in the same year.
A bet that has only been successfully completed by seven men in the entire history of cycling, all giants of the last century (Fausto Coppi, Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Stephen Roche, Miguel Indurain, and therefore Pantani). In the recent past, the few who have tried it, such as Alberto Contador or Chris Froome, have failed. Nothing to scare the ogre of Komenda, even if the coronavirus has somewhat disrupted a plan that had been going smoothly until then. “I fell ill ten days ago. I had Covid, it was a bit of a question mark but I recovered well,” he promised, a year after approaching the Tour with a preparation disrupted by a broken wrist.
This time, he assures us, he is “fully recovered” and ready to fight. “We’ll have to see how he feels but he didn’t seem very worried. If he talked about it, it’s because he’s sure of his marbles,” Coppel wants to believe. And it’s not Evenepoel who will say the opposite. “I expect Tadej to be almost unattainable. What he showed at the Giro was impressive without even having to dig deep into his reserves. He will be the man to beat at the Tour.” , declared the Belgian before leaving Florence. Same speech from Pavel Sivakov, soldier of “Pogi” at UAE Emirates.
“He’s super relaxed. I was with him when he had Covid, it didn’t change his preparation that much, we’re still confident,” says the Frenchman.
“The big risk for Pogacar is above all having a day without in the third week after having given a lot in the Giro where he was not content to focus on one or two stages. It’s his style and he will probably never change, but perhaps he will regret not having managed his efforts better in the Tour of Italy”, explains Pineau, while Coppel judges him “much stronger than the last two years”.
Evenepoel and Roglic not in the same league?
“He lost weight and changed coaches. We feel that he is no longer the same runner. He is astonishing in everything he does. On top of that, his team has progressed in terms of equipment and presents itself initially with stars who would be leaders in almost any other team. It’s a bit the opposite for Visma, who has had a series of glitches and withdrawals this season. The absence of Sepp Kuss (insufficiently recovered from Covid. ) can hurt them a lot,” explains the former French time trial champion. “There is Pogacar and the others. We don’t know where Jonas is, but maybe he will be at the top of his form,” says David Gaudu, who will aim for the general and stage victories with Groupama -FDJ.
But if it’s mainly about Pogacar and Vingegaard, what about the rest of the cast? After reaching a new level by winning his first Grand Tour on the Vuelta in 2022, Evenepoel experienced two disappointments on the Giro d’Italia (withdrawals in 2021 and 2023). Recovering from his fall in the Basque Country, he suffered as soon as the road climbed on the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, which he finished only in seventh place in a general classification won by Roglic.
The latter almost lost everything during the last stage at the Plateau des Glières, saving his yellow jersey for only eight seconds against Matteo Jorgenson. Having moved this winter from Visma to Bora-Hansgrohe, which is now counting on the means of Red Bull to reach a financial and sporting milestone, the Slovenian will be able to rely on solid lieutenants on this Tour such as the Russian Alexander Vlasov or the Australian Jai Hindley, stage winner and wearer of the yellow jersey in 2023.
“It’s wonderful to finally see Remco on the Tour, he’s one of the greatest talents in cycling today,” rejoices Pineau.
“The mountainous course and the two individual time trials could suit him, even if I fear that he will be limited in a three-week race at such intensity. Roglic, for his part, made the right choice to take his chance in another team. He is coming to the end of his career but I am convinced that he still has a great Tour in his legs. Also watch out for Ineos who are coming in force with several cards.” Ninth in the Tour last year, Gaudu is also wary of “big armadas like Bora” and of “a Remco who is not giving up and who will not be afraid”. “I think it is going to be a very, very beautiful Tour”, he says. And for the more daring, placing a small coin on Giulio Ciccone is still possible.
Rodolphe Ryo, in Florence (Italy)
