Will the 111th edition of the Tour de France (29.06 – 21.07) be a historic edition? A masterful winner of the Giro d’Italia, Tadej Pogacar is emerging as the main favourite for the Tour and could well be the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to achieve the double.
Only 7 riders in the long history of cycling have achieved the double. The Italian Marco Pantani (1998), the Spaniard Miguel Indurain (1992 and 1993), the Irishman Stephen Roche (1987) the Frenchman Bernard Hinault (1982 and 1985), the Belgian Eddy Merckx (1982 and 1985), the Frenchman Jacques Anquetil (1963-1964) and the first to have achieved this feat, the Italian Fausto Coppi (1949 and 1952). Given his start to the season, Pogacar has everything to be the 8th man.
Winning two Grand Tours in one year is almost the ultimate challenge.
He left his mark on the 2024 Giro by crushing the competition. In the general classification, he was 9’56 ahead of the Colombian Daniel Martinez, a gap not seen since 1965. The Slovenian, who won 6 stages on Italian roads, has never seemed so strong.
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And he didn’t just crush the Giro. He also won the Strade Bianche, the Tour of Catalonia – winning 3 stages – and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Coupled with an immaculate season in terms of injuries and falls, Pogacar definitely has everything to win his 3rd Grande Boucle after 2020 and 2021.
To achieve the three pass, he will also be surrounded by teammates who have performed well this year. We can cite the Briton Adam Yates, winner of the recent Tour de Suisse by winning 3 stages, the Portuguese Joao Almeida, 2nd in the Swiss Tour by winning 2 stages, and the young and promising Spaniard Juan Ayuso (21 years old), winner of the Tour du Pays Basque.
The unknown Jonas Vingegaard
What about Jonas Vingegaard, winner of the last two Tour de France ahead of Pogacar? The Dane experienced a truncated first part of the season due to serious injuries sustained at the Tour of the Basque Country on April 4 and only returned to training at the beginning of June. With this situation, it is difficult to classify it among the favorites.
Will Vingegaard have the physical capacity to race with the best? His good feelings felt in training do not guarantee good results in the race and two months without getting on the bike could well work against him as the Tour progresses.
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We must also not forget that the Dane will not be surrounded by “his” usual armada. Certainly, the Visma-Lease a Bike team remains strong with the presence of the Belgians Wout van Aert and Tiesj Benoot, the Dutchman Wilco Keldermann and the American Matteo Jorgenson. But he will have to deal without three of his main lieutenants: the Dutch Dylan Van Baarle and Steven Kruijswijk as well as the American Sepp Kuss.
The first two named were announced as long-term non-starters after their injuries sustained during this terrible stage of the Tour of the Basque Country. Kuss, affected by Covid-19, is absent at the last minute. The withdrawal of the last winner of the Tour of Spain, Vingegaard’s main lieutenant in the mountains, is a real blow for Visma.
Roglic et Evenepoel and outsiders
Among the outsiders, we can cite the Slovenian Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-Bora) and the Belgian Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step). Both caught in the crash on April 4 at the Tour du Pays Basque, they nevertheless resumed competition on June 2, lining up at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Roglic, without being sovereign, won the competition and showed a certain solidity in the mountains.
Evenepoel, for his part, confirmed his exceptional abilities in time trials by beating Roglic by 39 seconds. But he showed his limits in the mountain stages by losing time each time on the Slovenian. The Belgian nevertheless has what he needs to do well if he holds up in the mountains. With two time trials (the 8th stage, 25.3km long, and the 21st stage, 33.7km long) for a total of 59km, it can create interesting gaps.
Valerian Pezzulla
