Kent Hughes’ first big mistake

It’s starting to be hard to believe it was worth trading a first round pick and an early second round pick for Alex Newhook.

He will be 24 in January. He’s not old, but not so young anymore. We are starting to have a good idea of ​​its potential, which is obviously not what we hoped for. His 102 points in 53 games in the junior league in 2019 and his 42 points in the NCAA (in 34 games) with Boston College gave rise to high expectations. But we will obviously have to be more realistic in what the Canadian can expect from him.

He’s clearly not a playmaker or a defensive star and he’s not a scorer either, having scored 44 goals in his first 226 games in the NHL.

The most telling statistic about his lack of offensive skills concerns his career power play production. This is where offensively talented players can express themselves to demonstrate all their talent. And Newhook is terrible.

The helplessness game

He has played over 400 minutes on the power play since his NHL debut in 2021. He has 17 points.

I went to see how many players have played more than 400 minutes on the power play since 2021 and how many points they have made per minute played on the power play.

There are 260. Newhook comes in… 255th place.

By the way, Josh Anderson comes in dead last. If Anderson played the entire game on the power play, he would average 1.31 points. Newhook is 2.48 points. Gallagher is 254th with 2.49 points. To give you an idea to compare with the elite, the league’s top 40 is between 5.93 and 10.35 points per game.

Certainly, Newhook wasn’t playing with the elite on the power play either. But among the 260 players, there were several who did not play with the elite.

His 34 points in 55 games last year revived some hope of seeing him at the heart of the Canadian’s impact core for years to come, but his 2 points in 13 games this year are disillusioning. Even though he never plays with the same linemates, it’s very difficult for him. In fact, he is regressing in several statistics compared to last year and is among the worst 192 forwards (top 6) in the league in several categories.

No shots, no passes, no luck…

On average, per game, he throws 1.17 times on net. On this side, 305 players do better than him. No wonder he scores 0.15 goals per game.

On average, he gets a scoring chance by entering the opposing zone with the puck 0.42 times per game. Newhook has flaws, but it’s a rocket. Only Josh Anderson, Emil Heineman and Nick Suzuki have skated faster than him this year, according to national league statistics site NHL Edge. So, if Newhook is so fast, it’s not normal if he creates so few chances when entering the opposing zone with the puck. With his speed, it’s more than disappointing that 198 NHL skaters are better than him in this regard. It exposes his lack of offensive flair.

Getty Images via AFP

Precisely, for his offensive creativity, the figures are worrying. He is 309th in the league in turnovers. It causes it at a rate of 18.9%. And this, even if he has possession of the puck on average for only 24 seconds per game, which is very little (169th rank in the league). Per game, he only manages 1.08 passes in the slot. It’s hard to expect points.

In other words, we begin to wonder whether Alex Newhook can contribute or not harm offensively. One thing is certain, he is not of the caliber to play on the power play so far. Can he become a great defensive player? He is not very robust and played 1 min 49 s in his life on the numerical penalty. The chances are pretty low. His -10 differential is the 8th worst in the NHL.

We return to the starting point. Was Alex Newhook worth a first round pick and an early second round pick?

We could have thought so on June 27, 2023. But 16 months later, I no longer believe it. I think the Canadian made a mistake. Trading two good picks was a good strategy with the pool of prospects overflowing, but Montreal does not seem to have bet on the right horse. They were wrong.

Remember that by losing his two choices for Newhook (31st and 37th), the Canadian escaped Ethan Gauthier, who was drafted with one of Montreal’s choices. Gauthier shone in the playoffs with Drummondville last year and has already won with 19 points in 12 games this year with the Voltigeurs. He was seen as a potential supporting player before, but since his draft, the son of likeable former NHL defenseman Denis Gauthier is starting to show that he could be more than that.

Photo provided by the QMJHL

Another prospect who could have ended up with the Canadian is Gavin Brindley, drafted 34th, right in the waters of picks traded for Newhook. Brindley made his debut this season with the Blue Jackets after a stellar 53-point season in 40 games with the University of Michigan last year.

Exchanging choices 31 and 37 cannot allow us to find a future Steven Stamkos, we agree. Top players at these ranks are rare. But there are: Shane Pinto (32nd), Jordan Kyrou (35th), Sebastian Aho, the striker (35th), Olen Zellweger (34th), Logan Stankoven (47th), JJ Peterka (34th).

In short, the Canadian had two interesting cards with these choices. Maybe not two aces, but a good hand. And Montreal seems to have played these cards badly in an important moment of its reconstruction.

–With the collaboration of Sportlogiq