[Ligue 1] More than 47% chance for MHSC to be directly relegated

Throughout the season, day after day, Opta Prediction updates its logarithms and establishes the highest probabilities for the final Big-5 ranking. Ligue 1 is therefore no exception to the exercise, which allows us to project trends, more or less in real time. For this experiment, the “supercomputer” simulated all the matches of the season 10,000 times, and deduced a potential final ranking according to the results which came up most frequently. Although we obviously have to take a lot of perspective, last year, the tool proved relatively reliable at the end of the season.

As a reminder, in October, the organization did not make the MHSC one of the main candidates for the descent and instead targeted a 13/14th place for our Pailladins. At that time, our club was already in a worrying 17th place. Two months later, the situation is necessarily darker. With a 47.4% chance of being directly relegated, Montpellier is a serious candidate for descent. Only Le Havre has a worse record with a 58.7% chance. More generally and unsurprisingly, mainly five teams will fight for their survival in this year 2025: Nantes, Angers, Saint-Étienne, Le Havre and therefore Montpellier. Three of these opponents will be received at La Mosson. A reason for hope?

With a little more perspective, for Jean-Louis Gasset's gang, if we add the probability calculated for the place of play-off, in 67.1% of cases, it is concerned by the last three ranks. All that remains is to defy the statistics.