In the event of qualification for the Champions League playoffs, Real Madrid could well return to Stade Brestois, according to calculations by a specialist.
Who would have believed it, but the destinies of Stade Brestois and Real Madrid could be closely linked this season in the Champions League. Already because Real could play its qualification at Roudourou on January 29 during the last day of the championship phase.
Then, because currently, Brest is Real's most likely opponent in the Champions League play-off. 24th after five days, Madrid has a 6% chance of facing SB29 next February according to the specialized platform Football Meets Data.
If they do not face the Bretons, the Madrilenians still have a very good chance of facing a French club. After Benfica (5.4%), Monaco and Lille each have a 5.2% chance of playing Real in the playoffs, more than any other club.
The table for the final phase is already defined
To obtain these figures, Football Meets Data carries out simulations using the Elo method. Over 10,000 tests, Real Madrid has a success rate of 90% for qualification in the top 24 (2% for the top 8 which sends directly to the round of 16). For Stade Brestois, the rate reaches 99% (17% for the top 8).
Then it's a matter of settlement. For the knockout phase, there is no full draw. The table is already defined, but still leaves some randomness. For example: the 9th and the 10th are certain to face the 23rd or the 24th. The 11th and 12th are also sure to meet the 21st or 22nd. And so on.
The draw (without country restriction) is used to decide between the two possibilities each time. Teams that finished between places 9 and 16 are seeded and receive the return leg.
According to another simulation method, that of Opta, the most likely final ranking for Real Madrid is 18th. For Stade Brestois, it’s 15th and 17th.
